Powered by KalshiWho will be the next Secretary of the Army?·Brian Mast·5%(-85%)When will the House leave for its pre-election recess?·Before Sep 18, 2026·94%(+84%)Minnesota State Senate winner?·Republican party·16%(-83%)Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (8/30 - 9/5)·Above 0·88%(+80%)Which states will redistrict before the midterms?·Missouri·14%(-76%)MO-05 House winner?·Republican party·15%(-71%)Missouri's 4th District margin of victory·Republicans, 20+ pts·70%(+69%)Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?·Before Oct 1, 2026·90%(+68%)How many states will redistrict before the midterms?·Below 8·12%(-67%)Trump's approval rating on Sep 4, 2026?·39.7 to 39.9·96%(+52%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jho Low·37%(-52%)What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory·2%(-49%)Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026?·Sean Hannity·56%(+49%)Will the 11th Circuit rule non-intervened False Claims Act qui tam suits unconstitutional?·Before 2028·2%(-47%)Wisconsin's 2nd District margin of victory·Democrats, 50+ pts·92.5%(+46.5%)

Powered by KalshiWho will be the next Secretary of the Army?·Brian Mast·5%(-85%)When will the House leave for its pre-election recess?·Before Sep 18, 2026·94%(+84%)Minnesota State Senate winner?·Republican party·16%(-83%)Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (8/30 - 9/5)·Above 0·88%(+80%)Which states will redistrict before the midterms?·Missouri·14%(-76%)MO-05 House winner?·Republican party·15%(-71%)Missouri's 4th District margin of victory·Republicans, 20+ pts·70%(+69%)Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?·Before Oct 1, 2026·90%(+68%)How many states will redistrict before the midterms?·Below 8·12%(-67%)Trump's approval rating on Sep 4, 2026?·39.7 to 39.9·96%(+52%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jho Low·37%(-52%)What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory·2%(-49%)Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026?·Sean Hannity·56%(+49%)Will the 11th Circuit rule non-intervened False Claims Act qui tam suits unconstitutional?·Before 2028·2%(-47%)Wisconsin's 2nd District margin of victory·Democrats, 50+ pts·92.5%(+46.5%)

Live market summary

Liberals and Nationals is favored at 52% as of 4 Sep 2026, 05:03 UTC across 3 markets.

international3 marketsLIVE

Victorian state election winner?

All options

Liberals and Nationals

52%

—

$2K

Australian Labor Party

22%

—

$1K

One Nation

6%

—

$1K

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.

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Market odds FAQ

Who is favored in Victorian state election winner?

Liberals and Nationals is favored at 52% as of 4 Sep 2026, 05:03 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

What are the current odds for Victorian state election winner?

Liberals and Nationals: 52%; Australian Labor Party: 22%; One Nation: 6%. These are live market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.