Powered by KalshiWho will be the next Secretary of the Army?·Derrick Anderson·2%(-88%)Minnesota State Senate winner?·Republican party·16%(-83%)Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (8/30 - 9/5)·Above 0·88%(+81%)Which states will redistrict before the midterms?·Missouri·15%(-74%)Missouri's 4th District margin of victory·Republicans, 20+ pts·70%(+69%)How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/30-9/5)·At least 4·1%(-68%)Missouri's 5th District margin of victory·Democrats, 3+ pts·79%(+63%)MO-05 House winner?·Democratic party·84%(+61%)Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?·the 2026 California Voter ID initiative·93.2%(+58.2%)When will the UK cut or repeal its digital services tax?·Before Nov 1, 2026·28%(-54%)Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?·Before Oct 1, 2026·97%(+54%)How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/30 - 9/5)·Above 1·99%(+52%)How many states will redistrict before the midterms?·Below 8·27%(-52%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jho Low·37%(-52%)What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory·2%(-49%)

Powered by KalshiWho will be the next Secretary of the Army?·Derrick Anderson·2%(-88%)Minnesota State Senate winner?·Republican party·16%(-83%)Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (8/30 - 9/5)·Above 0·88%(+81%)Which states will redistrict before the midterms?·Missouri·15%(-74%)Missouri's 4th District margin of victory·Republicans, 20+ pts·70%(+69%)How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/30-9/5)·At least 4·1%(-68%)Missouri's 5th District margin of victory·Democrats, 3+ pts·79%(+63%)MO-05 House winner?·Democratic party·84%(+61%)Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?·the 2026 California Voter ID initiative·93.2%(+58.2%)When will the UK cut or repeal its digital services tax?·Before Nov 1, 2026·28%(-54%)Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?·Before Oct 1, 2026·97%(+54%)How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/30 - 9/5)·Above 1·99%(+52%)How many states will redistrict before the midterms?·Below 8·27%(-52%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jho Low·37%(-52%)What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory·2%(-49%)

Live market summary

Before Jan 1, 2027 is favored at 4% as of 4 Sep 2026, 00:33 UTC across 3 markets.

international3 marketsLIVE

Will Netanyahu be arrested?

All options

Before Jan 1, 2027

4%

—

$30K

Before Nov 1, 2026

3%

—

$17K

Before Oct 1, 2026

1%

—

$63K

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.

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Market odds FAQ

Who is favored in Will Netanyahu be arrested?

Before Jan 1, 2027 is favored at 4% as of 4 Sep 2026, 00:33 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

What are the current odds for Will Netanyahu be arrested?

Before Jan 1, 2027: 4%; Before Nov 1, 2026: 3%; Before Oct 1, 2026: 1%. These are live market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.