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Powered by KalshiWho will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer?·John Healey·99%(+98%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/13 - 7/19)·July 18·99%(+96%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/13 - 7/19)·Above 75·99%(+92%)São Toméan presidential election winner?·Miques João Bonfim·1%(-89%)Will Trump do anything this week? (7/19-7/25)·At least 8·99%(+88%)Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (7/19 - 7/25)·Above 0·99%(+84%)Who will serve in Burnham’s Cabinet in Jul 2026?·Rachel Reeves·3%(-66%)Who will be the next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026?·No new person·1%(-65%)Texas's 15th District margin of victory·Democrats, 2+ pts·38%(-59.4%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)·Above 70·65%(+58%)How many bills will President Trump sign in Jul 2026?·1·65%(+57%)Who will run for South Carolina Senate?·Nancy Mace·1%(-55%)Will the DOJ release the Biden ghostwriter tapes?·Before Oct 1, 2026·82%(+47%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 26·59%(+45%)Clacton by-election margin of victory?·Reform UK, ≥55%·51%(+44%)
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Summary

Before Jan 1, 2028 is favored at 52% as of 21 Jul 2026, 14:33 UTC across 6 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Before Jan 1, 2028: 52% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Oct 1, 2027: 30% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jan 1, 2027: 6% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Apr 1, 2027: 4% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jul 1, 2027: 4% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Sep 1, 2026: 2% (24h change 0%)
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Andy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?

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