Peter Thiel is favored at 56% as of 4 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC across 7 markets.
- Peter Thiel: 56% (24h change 0%)
- Larry Page: 36% (24h change 0%)
- Mark Zuckerberg: 34% (24h change 0%)
- Marc Andreessen: 12% (24h change 0%)
- Palmer Luckey: 12% (24h change +1%)
- Chamath Palihapitiya: 10% (24h change 0%)
- Jensen Huang: 2.1% (24h change 0%)
Who will announce a California departure in 2026?
Trade ↗Odds history
About this market
Market question: Who will announce a California departure in 2026?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Who will announce a California departure in 2026?
Peter Thiel is favored at 56% as of 4 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Who will announce a California departure in 2026?
Peter Thiel: 56%; Larry Page: 36%; Mark Zuckerberg: 34%; Marc Andreessen: 12%; Palmer Luckey: 12%; Chamath Palihapitiya: 10%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.