Live market summary
Before 2030 is favored at 22% as of 1 Oct 2026, 01:04 UTC across 1 market.
- Before 2030: 22% (24h change 0%)
policy1 marketLIVE
Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?
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About this market
Market question: Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote b?
Before 2030 is favored at 22% as of 1 Oct 2026, 01:04 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote b?
Before 2030: 22%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.