ElectionOddsPowered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiNew York Attorney General winner?·Saritha Komatireddy·90.2%(+81.6%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 22·12%(-60%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, 6-9%·11%(-60%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 20·96%(+41%)Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)·Nick Begich III·80%(+39%)Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?·Before Jan 1, 2033·51%(+39%)KS-04 Democratic nominee?·Chris Carmichael·24%(-35%)Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?·Before Jan 1, 2027·18%(-33%)Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?·Ron DeSantis·60%(+32%)Minas Gerais Governor winner?·Cleitinho Azevedo·24%(-32%)How many Senators vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?·Above 59·3%(-30%)Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?·Labour, ≥25%·59%(-30%)Clacton by-election: Count Binface vote percent·At least 20%·69%(+29%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?·Ron DeSantis·43%(-28%)How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?·At least 7·51%(-28%)
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Summary

Before Jan 1, 2028 is favored at 66% as of 27 Jul 2026, 17:03 UTC across 10 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Before Jan 1, 2028: 66% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Oct 1, 2027: 62% (24h change +1%)
  • Before Apr 1, 2027: 53% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jul 1, 2027: 53% (24h change +1%)
  • Before Jan 1, 2027: 40% (24h change +4%)
  • Before Dec 1, 2026: 31% (24h change -1%)
  • Before Oct 1, 2026: 20% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Nov 1, 2026: 19% (24h change -2%)
  • Before Sep 1, 2026: 2% (24h change -3%)
  • Before Aug 1, 2026: 0.4% (24h change -0.3%)
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