Above 3% is favored at 98% as of 8 Oct 2026, 03:06 UTC across 11 markets.
- Above 3%: 98% (24h change 0%)
- Above 7%: 95% (24h change 0%)
- Above 6%: 83% (24h change 0%)
- Above 5%: 83% (24h change 0%)
- Above 4%: 83% (24h change 0%)
- Above 8%: 69% (24h change 0%)
- Above 13%: 12% (24h change 0%)
- Above 12%: 9% (24h change 0%)
- Above 9%: 4% (24h change 0%)
- Above 11%: 3% (24h change 0%)
- Above 10%: 2% (24h change 0%)
US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026
Trade ↗Odds history
About this market
Market question: US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026?
Above 3% is favored at 98% as of 8 Oct 2026, 03:06 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026?
Above 3%: 98%; Above 7%: 95%; Above 6%: 83%; Above 5%: 83%; Above 4%: 83%; Above 8%: 69%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.