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Powered by KalshiWhat cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche·16%(-71%)Missouri: U.S. House nominee method·Parties choose nominees·18%(-64%)How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/30-9/5)·At least 2·99%(+62%)Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?·the 2026 California Voter ID initiative·43%(-50.2%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/31 - 9/6)·Above 25·11%(-43%)Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?·Die Linke·10%(-43%)New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary: Chris Pappas vote percent·At least 55%·46%(-43%)Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?·Howard Lutnick·51%(+42%)2028 popular vote margin of victory?·Democratic by 9.0% or more·21%(-39%)Florida Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 10+ pts·7.1%(-38.9%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/31 - 9/6)·August 31·41%(-34%)Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·75%(+34%)Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration·$47.5 trillion·31%(-33%)How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/30 - 9/5)·Above 2·2%(-32%)When will a court halt an NYC municipal grocery store?·Before Jul 1, 2027·24%(-32%)

Live market summary

Before Jan 1, 2027 is favored at 34% as of 5 Sep 2026, 15:34 UTC across 1 market.

international1 marketLIVE

When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?

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Before Jan 1, 2027

34%

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$2K

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.

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Market odds FAQ

Who is favored in When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?

Before Jan 1, 2027 is favored at 34% as of 5 Sep 2026, 15:34 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

What are the current odds for When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?

Before Jan 1, 2027: 34%. These are live market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.