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Marine Le Pen is favored at 50% as of 4 Oct 2026, 10:35 UTC across 29 markets.

  • Marine Le Pen: 50% (24h change +1%)
  • Édouard Philippe: 21% (24h change 0%)
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 11% (24h change 0%)
  • David Lisnard: 8.3% (24h change +0.3%)
  • François Hollande: 6% (24h change 0%)
  • Sarah Knafo: 2.7% (24h change +2.5%)
  • Gabriel Attal: 2% (24h change +0.2%)
  • Jordan Bardella: 1.9% (24h change -0.3%)
  • Bruno Retailleau: 1.3% (24h change 0%)
  • Christine Lagarde: 1% (24h change 0%)
  • Éric Zemmour: 0.4% (24h change +0.1%)
  • Sébastien Lecornu: 0.3% (24h change 0%)
  • François Ruffin: 0.2% (24h change 0%)
  • Dominique de Villepin: 0.1% (24h change -1%)
  • Manuel Bompard: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • François Bayrou: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Jean Castex: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Gérald Darmanin: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Xavier Bertrand: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Olivier Faure: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Bernard Cazeneuve: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Laurent Wauquiez: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Yaël Braun-Pivet: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Carole Delga: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Bruno Le Maire: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Michel Barnier: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Mathilde Panot: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Élisabeth Borne: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Valérie Pécresse: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
presidential29 marketsLIVE

Next French presidential election winner?

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All options

Marine Le Pen

50%
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David Lisnard

8.3%
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Sarah Knafo

2.7%
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Gabriel Attal

2%
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Jordan Bardella

1.9%
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Éric Zemmour

0.4%
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About this market

Market question: Next French presidential election winner?

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.

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Market odds FAQ

Who is favored in Next French presidential election winner?

Marine Le Pen is favored at 50% as of 4 Oct 2026, 10:35 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

What are the current odds for Next French presidential election winner?

Marine Le Pen: 50%; Édouard Philippe: 21%; Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 11%; David Lisnard: 8.3%; François Hollande: 6%; Sarah Knafo: 2.7%. These are live market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.