Powered by KalshiPeak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 30·8%(-83%)Florida's 10th District margin of victory·Democrats, 42+ pts·98%(+77%)Who will be confirmed by the Senate before the August recess?·Brett Matsumoto·78%(+62%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, 6-9%·11%(-60%)DE-AL Republican nominee?·Earl Cooper·98%(+56%)MI-07 House winner?·Democratic party·27%(-46%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 23·54%(+44%)NRCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)·Above $75M·46%(-43%)Greater Manchester mayoral election: 2nd place·Reform UK·98%(+43%)Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Jul 31, 2026?·Troy Jackson·53%(+42%)Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?·Alina Habba·60%(+41%)Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·41%(-39%)What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche·75%(+38%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)·Above 50·19%(-33%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 35·62%(+32%)

Powered by KalshiPeak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 30·8%(-83%)Florida's 10th District margin of victory·Democrats, 42+ pts·98%(+77%)Who will be confirmed by the Senate before the August recess?·Brett Matsumoto·78%(+62%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, 6-9%·11%(-60%)DE-AL Republican nominee?·Earl Cooper·98%(+56%)MI-07 House winner?·Democratic party·27%(-46%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 23·54%(+44%)NRCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)·Above $75M·46%(-43%)Greater Manchester mayoral election: 2nd place·Reform UK·98%(+43%)Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Jul 31, 2026?·Troy Jackson·53%(+42%)Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?·Alina Habba·60%(+41%)Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·41%(-39%)What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche·75%(+38%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)·Above 50·19%(-33%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 35·62%(+32%)

Summary

Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026? is favored at 48% as of 26 Jul 2026, 20:33 UTC across 1 market. Kalshi odds.

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Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

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Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026?

48%

▲ +1%

$53K