Democrats, 8 to 10% is favored at 28% as of 5 Oct 2026, 15:05 UTC across 10 markets.
- Democrats, 8 to 10%: 28% (24h change -1%)
- Democrats, 10 to 12%: 22% (24h change +1%)
- Democrats, 6 to 8%: 19% (24h change 0%)
- Democrats, 12 to 14%: 11% (24h change +1.1%)
- Democrats, 4 to 6%: 9% (24h change -0.2%)
- Republicans win: 5.3% (24h change +0.3%)
- Democrats, 2 to 4%: 5.1% (24h change -0.2%)
- Democrats, 14 to 16%: 3.9% (24h change -0.1%)
- Democrats, 0 to 2%: 3.4% (24h change -0.2%)
- Democrats, 16% and above: 3% (24h change +0.2%)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
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Market question: 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)?
Democrats, 8 to 10% is favored at 28% as of 5 Oct 2026, 15:05 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)?
Democrats, 8 to 10%: 28%; Democrats, 10 to 12%: 22%; Democrats, 6 to 8%: 19%; Democrats, 12 to 14%: 11%; Democrats, 4 to 6%: 9%; Republicans win: 5.3%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.