Live market summary
Before Oct 1, 2026 is favored at 3% as of 18 Sep 2026, 02:05 UTC across 1 market.
- Before Oct 1, 2026: 3% (24h change 0%)
international1 marketLIVE
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
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About this market
Market question: Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
Before Oct 1, 2026 is favored at 3% as of 18 Sep 2026, 02:05 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
Before Oct 1, 2026: 3%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.