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Powered by KalshiPeak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 20·80%(+73%)How many Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?·10·88%(+73%)Trump late night post this week? (7/26-8/1)·5-6 AM·99%(+71%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, 6-9%·11%(-60%)NRCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)·Above $75M·46%(-43%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 35·34%(-41%)Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?·Alina Habba·60%(+41%)Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?·Before Jan 1, 2033·51%(+39%)Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·41%(-39%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?·Ron DeSantis·38%(-37%)KS-04 Democratic nominee?·Chris Carmichael·24%(-35%)Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)·Nick Begich III·75%(+34%)Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?·Before Jan 1, 2027·18%(-33%)Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?·Ron DeSantis·60%(+32%)Andy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?·Before Oct 1, 2027·30%(-32%)
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Summary

Republicans, 19+ pts is favored at 64% as of 12 Jul 2026, 06:06 UTC across 10 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Republicans, 19+ pts: 64% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 21+ pts: 64% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 23+ pts: 58% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 27+ pts: 56% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 29+ pts: 50% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 25+ pts: 41% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 31+ pts: 40% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 33+ pts: 32% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 35+ pts: 19% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 39+ pts: 10% (24h change 0%)
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Idaho Senate margin of victory

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