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Powered by KalshiHow many Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?·10·88%(+73%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 22·12%(-60%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, 6-9%·11%(-60%)NRCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)·Above $75M·46%(-43%)Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?·Alina Habba·60%(+41%)Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?·Before Jan 1, 2033·51%(+39%)Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·41%(-39%)KS-04 Democratic nominee?·Chris Carmichael·24%(-35%)Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)·Nick Begich III·75%(+34%)Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?·Before Jan 1, 2027·18%(-33%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?·Ron DeSantis·38%(-33%)Clacton by-election: Count Binface vote percent·At least 20%·73%(+33%)Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?·Ron DeSantis·60%(+32%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 35·34%(-31%)How many Senators vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?·Above 59·3%(-30%)
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Summary

Republicans, 13+ pts is favored at 74% as of 16 Jul 2026, 02:33 UTC across 7 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Republicans, 13+ pts: 74% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 15+ pts: 73% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 19+ pts: 56% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 25+ pts: 25% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 27+ pts: 18% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 29+ pts: 12% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 31+ pts: 11% (24h change 0%)
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Louisiana Senate margin of victory

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