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Powered by KalshiWill California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?·Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?·3%(-87%)MI-13 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Donavan McKinney, 3-6%·98%(+80%)Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Aug 2026?·Will any member of Congress be out as any member of Congress in Aug 2026?·18%(-77%)Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration·$52.5 trillion·15%(-76%)WA-05 primary: who will advance?·Carmela Conroy·96%(+66%)Who will be arrested in 2026?·Lee Jae Myung·55%(+43%)WA-08 primary: who will advance?·Trinh Ha·62%(+42%)When will James McDonald be confirmed as SDNY U.S. attorney?·Before Oct 1, 2026·12%(-37%)Virginia's 4th District margin of victory·Democrats, 36+ pts·34%(-37%)Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (7/31-8/7)?·Above 38.1%·75%(+37%)Trump's approval rating on Aug 7, 2026?·Below 39.2·39%(-34%)North Carolina Senate General Election: voter turnout·Above 3.80M·86%(+34%)WI-08 Democratic nominee?·Katrina DeVille·17%(-34%)Who will drop out of their election?·Chuck Edwards·99%(+33%)Will Kash Patel visit Russia before November?·Will Kash Patel visit Russia before Nov 1, 2026?·35%(-33%)
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Summary

Above 8.80M is favored at 75% as of 5 Aug 2026, 05:03 UTC across 8 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Above 8.80M: 75% (24h change 0%)
  • Above 9.40M: 63% (24h change 0%)
  • Above 10.00M: 41% (24h change 0%)
  • Above 10.60M: 38% (24h change 0%)
  • Above 11.20M: 18% (24h change 0%)
  • Above 11.80M: 13% (24h change 0%)
  • Above 12.40M: 12% (24h change 0%)
  • Above 13.50M: 6% (24h change 0%)
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Texas Senate General Election: voter turnout

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