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Powered by KalshiTexas State House winner?·Republican party·16%(-72%)Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army?·Before Jan 1, 2027·27%(-70%)Will Serbia announce a snap election?·Before Oct 1, 2026·84%(+57%)Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·83%(+56%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 30·89%(+55%)Georgia Attorney General winner?·Tanya Miller·49%(-48.3%)New York's 17th District margin of victory·Republicans, 3+ pts·16%(-44%)Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?·U.S.–Mexico interim agreement·30%(-42%)Next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt?·Ulrich Siegmund·86%(+41%)Arkansas's 4th District margin of victory·Republicans, 36+ pts·59%(-37.8%)Idaho Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 19+ pts·59%(-35%)New Jersey Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 17+ pts·65%(-34%)Israeli legislative election winner?·Yashar·69%(+28%)Argentina presidential election winner?·Axel Kicillof·37%(+25%)Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025?·Ron Wyden·5.4%(-24.6%)
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Summary

Before Feb 1, 2027 is favored at 90% as of 16 Aug 2026, 12:33 UTC across 7 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Before Feb 1, 2027: 90% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jan 1, 2027: 87% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Dec 25, 2026: 66% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Dec 15, 2026: 28% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Dec 1, 2026: 26% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Oct 1, 2026: 7% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Nov 1, 2026: 7% (24h change 0%)
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