Live market summary
Labour is favored at 53% as of 12 Aug 2026, 07:04 UTC across 4 markets.
- Labour: 53% (24h change 0%)
- National: 48% (24h change 0%)
- Te Pāti Māori: 6% (24h change 0%)
- ACT: 4% (24h change 0%)
About this market
Market question: New Zealand general election winner?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in New Zealand general election winner?
Labour is favored at 53% as of 12 Aug 2026, 07:04 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for New Zealand general election winner?
Labour: 53%; National: 48%; Te Pāti Māori: 6%; ACT: 4%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.