No other person is favored at 44% as of 4 Oct 2026, 05:04 UTC across 17 markets.
- No other person: 44% (24h change 0%)
- Ron DeSantis: 9.3% (24h change 0%)
- Joni Ernst: 9.3% (24h change 0%)
- Steve Feinberg: 7.8% (24h change 0%)
- Wesley Hunt: 4.6% (24h change 0%)
- Tom Cotton: 3% (24h change 0%)
- Christopher Miller: 2% (24h change 0%)
- Mike Gallagher: 2% (24h change 0%)
- Bill Hagerty: 2% (24h change 0%)
- Trae Stephens: 2% (24h change 0%)
- Dan Driscoll: 1% (24h change 0%)
- Elbridge Colby: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
- Mike Waltz: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
- Tulsi Gabbard: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
- Mike Rogers: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
- Mike Pompeo: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
- Keith Kellogg: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?
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Odds history
About this market
Market question: Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?
No other person is favored at 44% as of 4 Oct 2026, 05:04 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?
No other person: 44%; Ron DeSantis: 9.3%; Joni Ernst: 9.3%; Steve Feinberg: 7.8%; Wesley Hunt: 4.6%; Tom Cotton: 3%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.