Who is favored in Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles??

Before Jan 1, 2030 is favored at 75% as of 1 Jul 2026, 21:03 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is the most recent traded price on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% chance of that outcome.

Powered by KalshiCA-24 primary: first place·Salud Carbajal·99%(+99%)CA-26 primary: first place·Jacqui Irwin·99%(+99%)WA-02 primary: who will advance?·Rick Larsen·99%(+99%)Colorado's 8th District margin of victory·Democrats, 2+ pts·98.9%(+98.9%)FL-28 Democratic nominee?·Phil Ehr·98%(+98%)MI-04 Democratic nominee?·Sean McCann·98%(+98%)FL-15 Republican nominee?·Laurel Lee·97%(+97%)CA-32 Primary margin of victory?·Brad Sherman, 0-5%·98%(+97%)How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?·Above 50·97%(+97%)FL-26 Democratic nominee?·Nicole Locklin·95%(+95%)MA-06 Republican nominee?·Micah Jones·93%(+93%)MI-03 Republican nominee?·Terri DeBoer·93%(+93%)FL-20 Republican nominee?·Rod Joseph·92%(+92%)MO-03 Democratic nominee?·Bethany E Mann·92%(+92%)Florida's 10th District margin of victory·Democrats, 30+ pts·91.4%(+91.4%)

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Live summary

Before Jan 1, 2030 is favored at 75% as of 1 Jul 2026, 21:03 UTC across 1 market. Live odds from Kalshi.

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Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles?

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Before Jan 1, 2030

75%

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310

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Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles?

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