Supreme court markets

Presidential Senate House Governor Congressional Supreme court Cabinet Federal reserve Other policy International Other

When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?

3 options · Leads: Before Jul 1, 2027 · Vol: $825K

▲ +1%

18%

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

39 options · Leads: Andrew Oldham · Vol: $667K

—

16%

How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?

10 options · Leads: 1 · Vol: $208K

▼ -9%

39%

New Supreme Court justice confirmed?

5 options · Leads: Before 2028 · Vol: $200K

—

63%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?

3 options · Leads: Before Jul 1, 2027 · Vol: $120K

—

31%

Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

9 options · Leads: Samuel Alito · Vol: $103K

▲ +1%

57%

Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage?

1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $100K

▼ -2.6%

Will any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?

1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $49K

▼ -1.1%

9.9%

Will US Supreme Court ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams?

1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $41K

—

21%

Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?

1 option · Leads: a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump · Vol: $32K

▲ +5%

20%

What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?

5 options · Leads: 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals · Vol: $29K

—

76%

Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?

3 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2028 · Vol: $25K

—

25%

What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?

6 options · Leads: Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory · Vol: $11K

—

55%

Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?

1 option · Leads: a case about AI and copyright law · Vol: $10K

—

15%

Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?

1 option · Leads: any 3rd Amendment case · Vol: $9K

—

6.9%

Will any Supreme Court Justice be charged with a federal crime?

1 option · Leads: Will any sitting Supreme Court Justice be charged with a any federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $6K

—

Will the size of the Supreme Court be changed during Trump's Presidency?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $5K

—

Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2030 · Vol: $4K

—

76%

Will Trump talk to a sitting Supreme Court justice?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $4K

▼ -6%

58%

Will the SCOTUS hear a case about flag burning before 2027?

1 option · Leads: a case about flag burning · Vol: $4K

—

7.9%

Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?

1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $3K

—

16%

Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $1K

—

79%

Will SCOTUS allow religious chilling-effect claims without a final land-use decision?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $821

—

85%

Will SCOTUS bar unpled affirmative defenses at summary judgment?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $710

—

56%

Will SCOTUS reject narrow Free Exercise tests for Catholic preschools?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $617

—

73%

Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $600

—

66%

Will SCOTUS overturn or narrow Stinson deference to federal sentencing-guideline commentary?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $538

—

65%

Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $509

—

69%

Will SCOTUS require state-law compensation in private natural-gas condemnations?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $441

—

54%

Will SCOTUS bar Watanabe’s Bivens medical-care claim?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $419

—

73%

Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $412

—

42%

Will the Supreme Court bar Boulder’s state-law climate claims against Suncor and Exxon?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $400

—

67%

Will SCOTUS let people seek green cards after their asylum is terminated?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $210

—

28%

Will SCOTUS require bond hearings for prolonged mandatory immigration detention?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $202

—

64%

Will SCOTUS hold that EAJA covers immigration-detention habeas actions?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $200

—

61%

Will SCOTUS let district courts hear constitutional challenges to veterans-benefits laws?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $121

▲ +1%

74%

Will SCOTUS allow Arizona’s citizenship-proof and pre-election noncitizen-removal rules?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $62

—

69%

Will the 11th Circuit rule non-intervened False Claims Act qui tam suits unconstitutional?

1 option · Leads: Before 2028 · Vol: $8

—

59%

Will SCOTUS count subscribers to a video provider’s non-video offerings as VPPA consumers?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $4

—

44%

Ohio Supreme Court: Brunner seat winner?

1 option · Leads: Jennifer Brunner · Vol: $4

—

40%

Will SCOTUS require courts to consider a defendant’s specific wrongdoing in excessive-fines cases?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $0

—

76%

Will SCOTUS let the Labor Department impose H-2A monetary remedies through agency proceedings?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $0

—

40%

Will SCOTUS bar the immediate NEPA challenge to the Air Force’s Guam hazardous-waste permit application?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $0

—

71%

Will SCOTUS bar contempt for conduct not clearly prohibited by an injunction?

1 option · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2028 · Vol: $0

—

73%