Live market summary
Before Election Day is favored at 17% as of 4 Oct 2026, 10:04 UTC across 3 markets.
- Before Election Day: 17% (24h change -1%)
- Before 2028: 13% (24h change 0%)
- Before 2027: 4.6% (24h change -4.4%)
presidential3 marketsLIVE
Will Trump run for a third term?
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About this market
Market question: Will Trump run for a third term?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Will Trump run for a third term?
Before Election Day is favored at 17% as of 4 Oct 2026, 10:04 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Will Trump run for a third term?
Before Election Day: 17%; Before 2028: 13%; Before 2027: 4.6%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.