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Powered by KalshiDan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army?·Before Jan 1, 2027·27%(-70%)When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?·Before Dec 1, 2026·88%(+66%)Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·83%(+63%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/24 - 8/30)·Above 30·75%(+49%)Louisiana's 2nd District margin of victory·Democrats, 50+ pts·15%(-45%)New York's 17th District margin of victory·Republicans, 3+ pts·15%(-45%)How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/16-8/22)·At least 3·1%(-44%)South Carolina Senate GOP runoff: which counties will Darline Graham win?·Oconee·80%(+42%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 30·55%(+38%)Arkansas's 4th District margin of victory·Republicans, 36+ pts·59%(-37.8%)Idaho Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 19+ pts·58%(-36%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·55%(-34%)Iowa Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 2+ pts·20%(-34%)New Jersey Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 17+ pts·65%(-34%)Who will be the next White House Director of Legislative Affairs?·No new Director of Legislative Affairs·47%(+32%)
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Summary

Before Jan 20, 2029 is favored at 38% as of 16 Aug 2026, 21:33 UTC across 3 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Before Jan 20, 2029: 38% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jan 1, 2028: 16% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jan 1, 2027: 5% (24h change 0%)
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