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Live market summary

5 or more is favored at 45% as of 16 Sep 2026, 00:35 UTC across 4 markets.

  • 5 or more: 45% (24h change -8%)
  • Exactly 4: 22% (24h change +5%)
  • Exactly 3: 16% (24h change -3%)
  • Exactly 2: 8.3% (24h change +4.3%)
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How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026?

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5 or more

45%
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Exactly 4

22%
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Exactly 3

16%
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Exactly 2

8.3%
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About this market

Market question: How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026?

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.

Market odds FAQ

Who is favored in How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026?

5 or more is favored at 45% as of 16 Sep 2026, 00:35 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

What are the current odds for How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026?

5 or more: 45%; Exactly 4: 22%; Exactly 3: 16%; Exactly 2: 8.3%. These are live market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.