Uganda is favored at 40% as of 5 Jul 2026, 23:03 UTC across 18 markets. Live odds from Kalshi.

• Uganda: 40% (24h change 0%)
• Democratic Republic of the Congo: 35% (24h change +12%)
• Lebanon: 21% (24h change 0%)
• South Sudan: 15% (24h change 0%)
• Russia: 14% (24h change 0%)
• Syria: 12% (24h change 0%)
• Ukraine: 10% (24h change 0%)
• Afghanistan: 7.6% (24h change 0%)
• Haiti: 6.6% (24h change 0%)
• Burma (Myanmar): 5.4% (24h change 0%)
• Libya: 5.1% (24h change 0%)
• Iran: 5% (24h change 0%)
• Sudan: 3.9% (24h change 0%)
• North Korea: 3.8% (24h change 0%)
• Yemen: 2% (24h change 0%)
• Gaza: 1.2% (24h change 0%)
• Iraq: 1.2% (24h change 0%)
• Somalia: 1% (24h change 0%)