Powered by KalshiFlorida Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 10+ pts·92.4%(+81.4%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·13%(-72%)FL-20 Republican nominee?·Rod Joseph·21%(-57%)FL-06 Republican primary: Dan Bilzerian vote percent·At least 7.5%·30%(-50%)Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?·Initiative #110·16%(-49%)FL-25 Republican nominee?·Dan Franzese·55%(+42%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jared Kushner·7.5%(-41.5%)FL-22 Republican primary: David Burck vote percent·At least 15%·12%(-38%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·77%(+37%)New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory·Democrats, 8+ pts·70%(+33%)What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory·55%(+31%)New Mexico Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 15+ pts·67%(+30%)US-Iran nuclear deal?·Before Jan 20, 2029·15%(-30%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 25·37%(-29%)FL-20 Democratic primary: Elijah Manley vote percent·At least 25%·59%(-27%)

Powered by KalshiFlorida Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 10+ pts·92.4%(+81.4%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·13%(-72%)FL-20 Republican nominee?·Rod Joseph·21%(-57%)FL-06 Republican primary: Dan Bilzerian vote percent·At least 7.5%·30%(-50%)Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?·Initiative #110·16%(-49%)FL-25 Republican nominee?·Dan Franzese·55%(+42%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jared Kushner·7.5%(-41.5%)FL-22 Republican primary: David Burck vote percent·At least 15%·12%(-38%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·77%(+37%)New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory·Democrats, 8+ pts·70%(+33%)What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory·55%(+31%)New Mexico Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 15+ pts·67%(+30%)US-Iran nuclear deal?·Before Jan 20, 2029·15%(-30%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 25·37%(-29%)FL-20 Democratic primary: Elijah Manley vote percent·At least 25%·59%(-27%)

Summary

Proposition 1 is favored at 75% as of 14 Aug 2026, 21:33 UTC across 13 markets. Kalshi odds.

policy13 marketsLIVE

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

All options

Proposition 1

75%

—

$138

Proposition 3

73%

—

$214

Proposition 45

63%

—

$1K

Proposition 37

55%

—

$91

Proposition 5

53%

—

$24

Proposition 38

52%

—

$495

Proposition 41

43%

—

$41

Proposition 44

40%

—

$1K

Proposition 39

23%

—

$41

Proposition 2

4%

—

$4

Proposition 4

4%

—

$4

Proposition 42

4%

—

$4

Proposition 43

4%

—

$4