Powered by KalshiPeak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 24·96%(+95%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 55·63%(+47%)Pennsylvania State House winner?·Democratic party·46%(-42%)Who will drop out of their primary?·James Fishback·4.7%(-40.3%)Who will Trump pardon?·Do Kwon·24%(-36%)What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche·42%(-33%)Will Todd Blanche’s AG nomination advance from committee?·Before Aug 1, 2026·32%(-31%)How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?·At least 3·53%(+31%)Navajo Nation presidential election winner?·Crystalyne Curley·62%(+28%)Will new tariffs become law?·Before Nov 1, 2026·56%(+26%)Clacton by-election: Count Binface vote percent·At least 20%·43%(-26%)When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?·Before Jan 1, 2027·32%(-25%)Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?·Before Jan 1, 2027·41%(+23%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?·Jensen Huang·51%(+23%)Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?·Thomas Massie·43%(-22%)

Powered by KalshiPeak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 24·96%(+95%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 55·63%(+47%)Pennsylvania State House winner?·Democratic party·46%(-42%)Who will drop out of their primary?·James Fishback·4.7%(-40.3%)Who will Trump pardon?·Do Kwon·24%(-36%)What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche·42%(-33%)Will Todd Blanche’s AG nomination advance from committee?·Before Aug 1, 2026·32%(-31%)How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?·At least 3·53%(+31%)Navajo Nation presidential election winner?·Crystalyne Curley·62%(+28%)Will new tariffs become law?·Before Nov 1, 2026·56%(+26%)Clacton by-election: Count Binface vote percent·At least 20%·43%(-26%)When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?·Before Jan 1, 2027·32%(-25%)Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?·Before Jan 1, 2027·41%(+23%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?·Jensen Huang·51%(+23%)Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?·Thomas Massie·43%(-22%)

Summary

Before Jan 1, 2028 is favored at 22% as of 28 Jul 2026, 20:03 UTC across 2 markets. Kalshi odds.

policy2 marketsLIVE

When will insulated copper cable face Section 232 restrictions?

All options

Before Jan 1, 2028

22%

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$51

Before Jan 1, 2027

9%

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$1