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Powered by KalshiTrump's approval rating on Aug 24, 2026?·39.4·1%(-98%)When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?·Before Oct 1, 2026·17%(-82%)Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?·Missouri Amendment 3·19%(-77%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/24 - 8/30)·Above 45·86%(+72%)Georgia Attorney General winner?·Tanya Miller·44%(-53.3%)Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/24 - 8/30)·Above 15·12%(-50%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 30·88%(+40%)New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory·Democrats, 8+ pts·31%(-39%)Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?·U.S.–Mexico interim agreement·33%(-39%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·88%(+33%)Iowa Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 2+ pts·52%(+32%)How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (8/22-8/28)·At least 5·63%(+29%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff: voter turnout·Above 350k·11%(-26%)South Carolina Senate GOP runoff: which counties will Darline Graham win?·Oconee·55%(-25%)How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?·Above 60·17%(-25%)
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Summary

Raphaël Glucksmann is favored at 38% as of 24 Aug 2026, 21:33 UTC across 6 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Raphaël Glucksmann: 38% (24h change 0%)
  • Olivier Faure: 13% (24h change 0%)
  • François Hollande: 13% (24h change 0%)
  • Bernard Cazeneuve: 12% (24h change 0%)
  • Boris Vallaud: 12% (24h change -2%)
  • Philippe Brun: 4% (24h change 0%)
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French socialist bloc presidential primary winner?

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