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Powered by KalshiPeak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 20·80%(+73%)How many Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?·10·88%(+73%)Trump late night post this week? (7/26-8/1)·5-6 AM·99%(+71%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, 6-9%·11%(-60%)NRCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)·Above $75M·46%(-43%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 35·34%(-41%)Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?·Alina Habba·60%(+41%)Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·41%(-39%)KS-04 Democratic nominee?·Chris Carmichael·24%(-35%)Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)·Nick Begich III·75%(+34%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?·Ron DeSantis·41%(-34%)Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?·Before Jan 1, 2027·18%(-33%)Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?·Ron DeSantis·60%(+32%)Andy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?·Before Oct 1, 2027·30%(-32%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)·Above 50·15%(-32%)
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Summary

Republicans, 12+ pts is favored at 77% as of 12 Jul 2026, 06:06 UTC across 8 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Republicans, 12+ pts: 77% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 14+ pts: 75% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 16+ pts: 49% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 20+ pts: 49% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 18+ pts: 41% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 24+ pts: 29% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 22+ pts: 25% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 32+ pts: 9.8% (24h change 0%)
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Kentucky Senate margin of victory

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