Powered by KalshiHow many Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?·10·88%(+73%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 22·12%(-60%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, 6-9%·11%(-60%)NRCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)·Above $75M·46%(-43%)Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?·Alina Habba·60%(+41%)Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?·Before Jan 1, 2033·51%(+39%)Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·41%(-39%)KS-04 Democratic nominee?·Chris Carmichael·24%(-35%)Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)·Nick Begich III·75%(+34%)Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?·Before Jan 1, 2027·18%(-33%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?·Ron DeSantis·38%(-33%)Clacton by-election: Count Binface vote percent·At least 20%·73%(+33%)Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?·Ron DeSantis·60%(+32%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 35·34%(-31%)How many Senators vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?·Above 59·3%(-30%)

Powered by KalshiHow many Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?·10·88%(+73%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 22·12%(-60%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, 6-9%·11%(-60%)NRCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)·Above $75M·46%(-43%)Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?·Alina Habba·60%(+41%)Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?·Before Jan 1, 2033·51%(+39%)Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·41%(-39%)KS-04 Democratic nominee?·Chris Carmichael·24%(-35%)Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)·Nick Begich III·75%(+34%)Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?·Before Jan 1, 2027·18%(-33%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?·Ron DeSantis·38%(-33%)Clacton by-election: Count Binface vote percent·At least 20%·73%(+33%)Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?·Ron DeSantis·60%(+32%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 35·34%(-31%)How many Senators vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?·Above 59·3%(-30%)

Summary

Democrats, 9+ pts is favored at 84% as of 12 Jul 2026, 04:03 UTC across 11 markets. Kalshi odds.

senate11 marketsLIVE

New Mexico Senate margin of victory

All options

Democrats, 9+ pts

84%

—

$255

Democrats, 11+ pts

78%

—

$128

Democrats, 13+ pts

76%

—

$56

Democrats, 17+ pts

63%

—

$348

Democrats, 15+ pts

37%

—

$15

Democrats, 19+ pts

27%

—

$315

Democrats, 21+ pts

16%

—

$15

Democrats, 23+ pts

13%

—

$15

Democrats, 25+ pts

8.8%

—

$15

Democrats, 27+ pts

5.1%

—

$6

Democrats, 29+ pts

2.9%

—

$7