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Powered by KalshiPeak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 20·80%(+73%)How many Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?·10·88%(+73%)Trump late night post this week? (7/26-8/1)·5-6 AM·99%(+71%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, 6-9%·11%(-60%)NRCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)·Above $75M·46%(-43%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 35·34%(-41%)Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?·Alina Habba·60%(+41%)Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·41%(-39%)KS-04 Democratic nominee?·Chris Carmichael·24%(-35%)Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)·Nick Begich III·75%(+34%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?·Ron DeSantis·41%(-34%)Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?·Before Jan 1, 2027·18%(-33%)Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?·Ron DeSantis·60%(+32%)Andy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?·Before Oct 1, 2027·30%(-32%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)·Above 50·15%(-32%)
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Summary

Democrats, 15+ pts is favored at 85% as of 25 Jul 2026, 18:33 UTC across 10 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Democrats, 15+ pts: 85% (24h change 0%)
  • Democrats, 17+ pts: 76% (24h change 0%)
  • Democrats, 21+ pts: 66% (24h change 0%)
  • Democrats, 19+ pts: 65% (24h change 0%)
  • Democrats, 23+ pts: 57% (24h change 0%)
  • Democrats, 25+ pts: 48% (24h change 0%)
  • Democrats, 27+ pts: 39% (24h change 0%)
  • Democrats, 29+ pts: 30% (24h change 0%)
  • Democrats, 31+ pts: 21% (24h change 0%)
  • Democrats, 33+ pts: 13% (24h change 0%)
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Oregon Senate margin of victory

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