John Fetterman is favored at 11% as of 2 Oct 2026, 00:06 UTC across 5 markets.
- John Fetterman: 11% (24h change 0%)
- Lisa Murkowski: 7.1% (24h change 0%)
- Don Bacon: 3.4% (24h change 0%)
- Henry Cuellar: 3.4% (24h change 0%)
- Thomas Massie: 3.1% (24h change 0%)
Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?
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About this market
Market question: Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?
John Fetterman is favored at 11% as of 2 Oct 2026, 00:06 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?
John Fetterman: 11%; Lisa Murkowski: 7.1%; Don Bacon: 3.4%; Henry Cuellar: 3.4%; Thomas Massie: 3.1%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.