Powered by KalshiFlorida Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 10+ pts·92.4%(+81.4%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·13%(-72%)FL-20 Republican nominee?·Rod Joseph·21%(-57%)FL-06 Republican primary: Dan Bilzerian vote percent·At least 7.5%·30%(-50%)Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?·Initiative #110·16%(-49%)FL-25 Republican nominee?·Dan Franzese·55%(+42%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jared Kushner·7.5%(-41.5%)FL-22 Republican primary: David Burck vote percent·At least 15%·12%(-38%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·77%(+37%)New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory·Democrats, 8+ pts·70%(+33%)What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory·55%(+31%)New Mexico Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 15+ pts·67%(+30%)US-Iran nuclear deal?·Before Jan 20, 2029·15%(-30%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 25·37%(-29%)FL-20 Democratic primary: Elijah Manley vote percent·At least 25%·59%(-27%)

Powered by KalshiFlorida Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 10+ pts·92.4%(+81.4%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·13%(-72%)FL-20 Republican nominee?·Rod Joseph·21%(-57%)FL-06 Republican primary: Dan Bilzerian vote percent·At least 7.5%·30%(-50%)Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?·Initiative #110·16%(-49%)FL-25 Republican nominee?·Dan Franzese·55%(+42%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jared Kushner·7.5%(-41.5%)FL-22 Republican primary: David Burck vote percent·At least 15%·12%(-38%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·77%(+37%)New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory·Democrats, 8+ pts·70%(+33%)What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?·Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory·55%(+31%)New Mexico Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 15+ pts·67%(+30%)US-Iran nuclear deal?·Before Jan 20, 2029·15%(-30%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 25·37%(-29%)FL-20 Democratic primary: Elijah Manley vote percent·At least 25%·59%(-27%)

Summary

Alexander Stubb is favored at 24% as of 17 Aug 2026, 10:32 UTC across 8 markets. Kalshi odds.

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Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?

All options

Alexander Stubb

24%

—

$607

Petr Pavel

13%

—

$461

Kaja Kallas

11%

▼ -6%

$988

Mette Frederiksen

11%

—

$519

Ursula von der Leyen

10%

—

$533

Ben Wallace

9%

—

$896

Klaus Iohannis

6%

—

$256

Keir Starmer

6%

—

$263