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Live market summary

Donald Trump Jr. is favored at 61% as of 4 Oct 2026, 11:05 UTC across 52 markets.

  • Donald Trump Jr.: 61% (24h change 0%)
  • Eric Trump: 58% (24h change +9%)
  • Jared Kushner: 57% (24h change +9%)
  • Pete Hegseth: 57% (24h change +16%)
  • Scott Bessent: 48% (24h change +8%)
  • Barron Trump: 47% (24h change -1%)
  • Donald Trump: 44% (24h change -6%)
  • Steve Bannon: 42% (24h change 0%)
  • Todd Blanche: 42% (24h change 0%)
  • Susie Wiles: 41% (24h change 0%)
  • Keonne Rodriguez: 39% (24h change 0%)
  • Eric Adams: 38% (24h change 0%)
  • Pam Bondi: 38% (24h change +4%)
  • Jho Low: 37% (24h change 0%)
  • JD Vance: 36% (24h change +1%)
  • Ghislaine Maxwell: 35% (24h change 0%)
  • Tim Leissner: 35% (24h change 0%)
  • Prakazrel Michel: 35% (24h change 0%)
  • Elon Musk: 35% (24h change +1%)
  • Marco Rubio: 35% (24h change +10%)
  • Julian Assange: 33% (24h change 0%)
  • Robin Smith: 33% (24h change 0%)
  • Elizabeth Holmes: 32% (24h change -6%)
  • Sean Combs: 31% (24h change -7%)
  • Sam Bankman-Fried: 31% (24h change 0%)
  • Larry Householder: 31% (24h change 0%)
  • Edward Snowden: 30% (24h change +3%)
  • Justin Sun: 26% (24h change 0%)
  • Joe Giudice: 26% (24h change +5%)
  • Derek Chauvin: 25% (24h change 0%)
  • Pete Rose: 25% (24h change 0%)
  • Kisean Anderson: 25% (24h change 0%)
  • Do Kwon: 24% (24h change 0%)
  • Martin Shkreli: 23% (24h change 0%)
  • Matt Borges: 22% (24h change 0%)
  • Joseph Maldonado: 22% (24h change 0%)
  • Bob Menendez: 21% (24h change 0%)
  • Torence Hatch: 20% (24h change 0%)
  • Tou Thao: 20% (24h change 0%)
  • Safaree Samuels: 18% (24h change 0%)
  • Leon Stanton: 17% (24h change 0%)
  • Daniel Hale: 17% (24h change 0%)
  • Jeffery Williams: 14% (24h change 0%)
  • Alex Mashinsky: 13% (24h change 0%)
  • Jose Muyet: 13% (24h change 0%)
  • Roger Ver: 12% (24h change 0%)
  • Brian Cole Jr.: 12% (24h change 0%)
  • Ty Garbin: 12% (24h change 0%)
  • Bill Hwang: 8.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Sebastian Telfair: 6% (24h change 0%)
  • Hunter Biden: 5.2% (24h change 0%)
  • DeAndre Way: 5.1% (24h change 0%)
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Who will Trump pardon?

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All options

Eric Trump

58%
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Pete Hegseth

57%
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Barron Trump

47%
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Donald Trump

44%
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Pam Bondi

38%
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JD Vance

36%
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Elon Musk

35%
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Marco Rubio

35%
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Sean Combs

31%
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Joe Giudice

26%
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About this market

Market question: Who will Trump pardon?

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.

Market odds FAQ

Who is favored in Who will Trump pardon?

Donald Trump Jr. is favored at 61% as of 4 Oct 2026, 11:05 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

What are the current odds for Who will Trump pardon?

Donald Trump Jr.: 61%; Eric Trump: 58%; Jared Kushner: 57%; Pete Hegseth: 57%; Scott Bessent: 48%; Barron Trump: 47%. These are live market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.