Reform UK majority is favored at 13% as of 30 Sep 2026, 21:34 UTC across 19 markets.
- Reform UK majority: 13% (24h change 0%)
- Labour majority: 11% (24h change 0%)
- Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition: 11% (24h change 0%)
- Reform UK minority: 11% (24h change 0%)
- Labour minority + Green support: 9% (24h change 0%)
- Labour minority: 7.8% (24h change 0%)
- Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition: 7.5% (24h change 0%)
- Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support: 7.4% (24h change 0%)
- Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support: 7.2% (24h change 0%)
- Labour minority + SNP support: 6.5% (24h change 0%)
- Reform UK minority + DUP support: 6.5% (24h change 0%)
- Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition: 5.6% (24h change 0%)
- Conservative minority: 4.4% (24h change 0%)
- Reform UK minority + Conservative support: 3.2% (24h change 0%)
- Reform UK and Conservative coalition: 2.9% (24h change 0%)
- Conservative minority + Reform UK support: 2.6% (24h change 0%)
- Conservative majority: 1.6% (24h change 0%)
- Conservative minority + DUP support: 1.2% (24h change 0%)
- Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition: 1% (24h change 0%)
Next government of the United Kingdom?
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Odds history
About this market
Market question: Next government of the United Kingdom?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Next government of the United Kingdom?
Reform UK majority is favored at 13% as of 30 Sep 2026, 21:34 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Next government of the United Kingdom?
Reform UK majority: 13%; Labour majority: 11%; Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition: 11%; Reform UK minority: 11%; Labour minority + Green support: 9%; Labour minority: 7.8%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.