Live summary
Labour majority is favored at 20% as of 4 Jul 2026, 01:02 UTC across 19 markets. Live odds from Kalshi.
- Labour majority: 20% (24h change 0%)
- Reform UK minority + Conservative support: 15% (24h change 0%)
- Reform UK minority: 11% (24h change 0%)
- Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition: 11% (24h change 0%)
- Labour minority + Green support: 9% (24h change 0%)
- Labour minority: 7.8% (24h change 0%)
- Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition: 7.5% (24h change 0%)
- Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support: 7.4% (24h change 0%)
- Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support: 7.2% (24h change 0%)
- Labour minority + SNP support: 6.5% (24h change 0%)
- Reform UK minority + DUP support: 6.5% (24h change 0%)
- Reform UK majority: 6.1% (24h change 0%)
- Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition: 5.6% (24h change 0%)
- Conservative minority: 4.4% (24h change 0%)
- Reform UK and Conservative coalition: 2.9% (24h change 0%)
- Conservative minority + Reform UK support: 2.6% (24h change 0%)
- Conservative majority: 1.6% (24h change 0%)
- Conservative minority + DUP support: 1.2% (24h change 0%)
- Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition: 1% (24h change 0%)
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