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Powered by KalshiWhen will records from Fauci’s phone be released?·Before Aug 15, 2026·99%(+89%)Who will visit the White House in 2026?·Jaxson Dart·97%(+83%)How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?·At least 7·93%(+79%)Which states will redistrict before the 2028 election?·New York·4%(-78%)West Virginia Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 30+ pts·1%(-77%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary: Russell Fry vote percent (1st Round)·At least 40%·70%(+68%)Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/10 - 8/16)·Above 225·77%(+66%)Minas Gerais Governor winner?·Alexandre Kalil·10%(-62%)Who will be the next Senate Judiciary chair?·Sheldon Whitehouse·91%(+56%)Ken Martin out as DNC chair?·Before Sep 1, 2026·14%(-55%)Florida's 20th District margin of victory·Democrats, 43+ pts·54%(+53%)West Virginia's 2nd District margin of victory·Republicans, 42+ pts·63%(+51%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Aug 2026?·Jensen Huang·7%(-50%)When will the Senate pass a budget resolution?·Before Jan 1, 2027·91%(+49%)Spanish general election winner?·Spanish Socialist Workers' Party·67%(+49%)
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Summary

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is favored at 84% as of 11 Aug 2026, 20:04 UTC across 7 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 84% (24h change 0%)
  • Flávio Bolsonaro: 8% (24h change +0.2%)
  • Ronaldo Caiado: 2% (24h change 0%)
  • Renan Santos: 1% (24h change 0%)
  • Romeu Zema: 1% (24h change 0%)
  • Tarcísio de Freitas: 1% (24h change 0%)
  • Fernando Haddad: 0.8% (24h change 0%)
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Brazil presidential election: first round winner?

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