Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is favored at 64% as of 4 Oct 2026, 10:35 UTC across 8 markets.
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 64% (24h change -12%)
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 40% (24h change +14%)
- Augusto Cury: 1% (24h change 0%)
- Fernando Haddad: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
- Renan Santos: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
- Romeu Zema: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
- Ronaldo Caiado: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
- Tarcísio de Freitas: 0.1% (24h change 0%)
Brazil presidential election: first round winner?
Trade ↗Odds history
About this market
Market question: Brazil presidential election: first round winner?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Brazil presidential election: first round winner?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is favored at 64% as of 4 Oct 2026, 10:35 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Brazil presidential election: first round winner?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 64%; Flávio Bolsonaro: 40%; Augusto Cury: 1%; Fernando Haddad: 0.1%; Renan Santos: 0.1%; Romeu Zema: 0.1%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.