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Powered by KalshiNY-12 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Micah Lasher, 4-6%·3%(-93%)RNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)·Above 120 million·93%(+89%)DNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)·Above 12 million·88%(+85%)When will Trump and Netanyahu meet?·Before Jul 21, 2026·3%(-84%)Number of White House Press Briefings in Jul 2026?·At least 3·7%(-67%)NY-13 Democratic primary: voter turnout·Above 70k·99%(+67%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/13 - 7/19)·July 14·75%(+54%)How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?·At least 8·27%(-53%)Who will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer?·Shabana Mahmood·92%(+51%)How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?·Above 60·70%(+49%)Who will attend the 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner?·John Thune·54%(+49%)Who will serve in Burnham’s Cabinet in Jul 2026?·Wes Streeting·94%(+46%)Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?·Alina Habba·60%(+41%)Who will be the next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026?·No new person·11%(-40%)How many Senators vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?·Above 60·5%(-39%)
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Summary

Reform UK is favored at 33% as of 16 Jul 2026, 15:03 UTC across 5 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Reform UK: 33% (24h change 0%)
  • Green Party: 27% (24h change 0%)
  • Conservative Party: 23% (24h change 0%)
  • Labour Party: 14% (24h change 0%)
  • Liberal Democrat: 5% (24h change 0%)
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Greater Manchester mayoral election: 2nd place

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