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Powered by KalshiTexas State House winner?·Republican party·16%(-72%)Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army?·Before Jan 1, 2027·27%(-63%)Georgia Attorney General winner?·Tanya Miller·44%(-53.3%)Will Serbia announce a snap election?·Before Oct 1, 2026·84%(+45%)New York's 17th District margin of victory·Republicans, 3+ pts·16%(-44%)Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?·U.S.–Mexico interim agreement·30%(-42%)Next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt?·Ulrich Siegmund·86%(+41%)Arkansas's 4th District margin of victory·Republicans, 36+ pts·59%(-37.8%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 35·51%(+35%)Idaho Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 19+ pts·59%(-35%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·89%(+34%)New Jersey Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 17+ pts·65%(-34%)Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/24 - 8/30)·Above 20·10%(-28%)Israeli legislative election winner?·Yashar·69%(+28%)Argentina presidential election winner?·Axel Kicillof·37%(+25%)
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Summary

Republicans, 1+ pts is favored at 34% as of 14 Aug 2026, 14:33 UTC across 4 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Republicans, 1+ pts: 34% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 4+ pts: 21% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 7+ pts: 12% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 10+ pts: 11% (24h change 0%)
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Pennsylvania's 8th District margin of victory

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