Powered by KalshiWill John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?·Before Jan 1, 2027·9%(-77%)Will Trump do anything this week? (7/26-8/1)·At least 3·99%(+67%)MO-05 Republican nominee?·Brett Hueffmeier·6%(-66%)VA-01 Democratic nominee?·Jason Knapp·58%(+57%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 26·48%(+45%)Who will AOC endorse?·Darializa Avila Chevalier·36%(-41%)Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?·Labour, ≥30%·99%(+41%)Will Missouri Amendment 5 pass?·Will Amendment 5 pass?·24%(-41%)When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?·Before Oct 2026·88%(+38%)Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?·Mike Lee·67%(+32%)How many Senators will vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?·Above 51·57%(+30%)Which ballot measures will pass in California?·Proposition 45·65%(-28%)Which bills will become law in 2026?·College sports federalization·47%(+26%)Will a cabinet member be impeached?·Before Jan 20, 2029·51%(-24%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?·Ralph Norman·18%(-23%)

Powered by KalshiWill John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?·Before Jan 1, 2027·9%(-77%)Will Trump do anything this week? (7/26-8/1)·At least 3·99%(+67%)MO-05 Republican nominee?·Brett Hueffmeier·6%(-66%)VA-01 Democratic nominee?·Jason Knapp·58%(+57%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 26·48%(+45%)Who will AOC endorse?·Darializa Avila Chevalier·36%(-41%)Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?·Labour, ≥30%·99%(+41%)Will Missouri Amendment 5 pass?·Will Amendment 5 pass?·24%(-41%)When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?·Before Oct 2026·88%(+38%)Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?·Mike Lee·67%(+32%)How many Senators will vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?·Above 51·57%(+30%)Which ballot measures will pass in California?·Proposition 45·65%(-28%)Which bills will become law in 2026?·College sports federalization·47%(+26%)Will a cabinet member be impeached?·Before Jan 20, 2029·51%(-24%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?·Ralph Norman·18%(-23%)

Summary

Before Sep 1, 2026 is favored at 49% as of 1 Aug 2026, 16:04 UTC across 1 market. Kalshi odds.

policy1 marketLIVE

Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Aug 2026?

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Before Sep 1, 2026

49%

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$100