Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance is favored at 16% as of 5 Oct 2026, 16:35 UTC across 16 markets.
- Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance: 16% (24h change +2%)
- Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance: 11% (24h change +1.1%)
- AOC v. JD Vance: 10% (24h change 0%)
- AOC v. Marco Rubio: 8.8% (24h change -14.2%)
- Jon Ossoff v. Marco Rubio: 8.4% (24h change 0%)
- Kamala Harris v. JD Vance: 7.1% (24h change 0%)
- Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio: 2.4% (24h change 0%)
- Andy Beshear v. JD Vance: 1.8% (24h change 0%)
- Pete Buttigieg v. Marco Rubio: 1.7% (24h change 0%)
- Josh Shapiro v. Marco Rubio: 1.7% (24h change 0%)
- Andy Beshear v. Marco Rubio: 1.5% (24h change +0.5%)
- Pete Buttigieg v. JD Vance: 1.5% (24h change 0%)
- Josh Shapiro v. JD Vance: 1.4% (24h change 0%)
- James Talarico v. Marco Rubio: 0.9% (24h change 0%)
- Kamala Harris v. Marco Rubio: 0.8% (24h change 0%)
- James Talarico v. JD Vance: 0.8% (24h change 0%)
2028 Presidential matchup
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Odds history
About this market
Market question: 2028 Presidential matchup
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in 2028 Presidential matchup?
Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance is favored at 16% as of 5 Oct 2026, 16:35 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for 2028 Presidential matchup?
Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance: 16%; Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance: 11%; AOC v. JD Vance: 10%; AOC v. Marco Rubio: 8.8%; Jon Ossoff v. Marco Rubio: 8.4%; Kamala Harris v. JD Vance: 7.1%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.