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Powered by KalshiHI-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Ed Case, ≥15%·99%(+88%)WA-08 primary: who will advance?·Spencer Meline·99%(+75%)NC-11 Republican nominee on Aug 11, 2026?·Tim Moffitt·6%(-67%)Ken Martin out as DNC chair?·Before Sep 1, 2026·69%(+61%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary: Russell Fry vote percent (1st Round)·At least 35%·64%(+59%)HI-01 Democratic nominee?·Ed Case·99.9%(+53.9%)HI-01 Democratic nominee?·Ed Case·99%(+50%)When will the UK's social media ban take effect?·Before Aug 1, 2027·34%(-44%)Wisconsin Attorney General winner?·Republican party·15%(-43%)Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?·Adam Crum·47%(+40.5%)Ohio's 7th District margin of victory·Democrats, 6+ pts·54%(+38%)How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?·At least 7·14%(-38%)Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader?·Before Jan 1, 2027·52%(+33%)Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?·Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés·36%(+32%)FL-25 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Jared Moskowitz, ≥25%·75%(+28%)
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Summary

Before Jan 1, 2027 is favored at 34% as of 9 Aug 2026, 16:04 UTC across 5 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Before Jan 1, 2027: 34% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Dec 1, 2026: 27% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Nov 1, 2026: 20% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Oct 1, 2026: 6% (24h change -1%)
  • Before Sep 1, 2026: 4% (24h change 0%)
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When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?

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