Democratic by 9.0% or more is favored at 22% as of 1 Oct 2026, 05:05 UTC across 20 markets.
- Democratic by 9.0% or more: 22% (24h change 0%)
- Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99%: 19% (24h change 0%)
- Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%: 10% (24h change 0%)
- Republican by 9.0% or more: 9% (24h change 0%)
- Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99%: 6% (24h change 0%)
- Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99%: 6% (24h change 0%)
- Democratic by 3.0% to 3.99%: 5% (24h change 0%)
- Democratic by 4.0% to 4.99%: 5% (24h change 0%)
- Democratic by 2.0% to 2.99%: 5% (24h change 0%)
- Democratic by 0.01% to 0.99%: 4% (24h change 0%)
- Republican by 1.0% to 1.99%: 4% (24h change 0%)
- Republican by 6.0% to 6.99%: 3% (24h change 0%)
- Republican by 0.01% to 0.99%: 3% (24h change 0%)
- Republican by 8.0% to 8.99%: 3% (24h change 0%)
- Republican by 7.0% to 7.99%: 3% (24h change 0%)
- Republican by 2.0% to 2.99%: 2% (24h change 0%)
- Republican by 5.0% to 5.99%: 2% (24h change 0%)
- Democratic by 1.0% to 1.99%: 1% (24h change 0%)
- Republican by 3.0% to 3.99%: 1% (24h change 0%)
- Republican by 4.0% to 4.99%: 1% (24h change 0%)
2028 popular vote margin of victory?
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About this market
Market question: 2028 popular vote margin of victory?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in 2028 popular vote margin of victory?
Democratic by 9.0% or more is favored at 22% as of 1 Oct 2026, 05:05 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for 2028 popular vote margin of victory?
Democratic by 9.0% or more: 22%; Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99%: 19%; Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%: 10%; Republican by 9.0% or more: 9%; Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99%: 6%; Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99%: 6%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.