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Powered by KalshiWhen will the House pass a reconciliation bill?·Before Dec 1, 2026·82%(+72%)Maine State Senate winner?·Republican party·85%(+70%)WA-06 primary: who will advance?·Leon Lawson·9%(-67%)Massachusetts's 2nd District margin of victory·Democrats, 44+ pts·92%(+61%)Who will AOC endorse?·Darializa Avila Chevalier·60%(+58%)Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (7/3-7/10)?·Above 40.2%·68%(+48%)NY-13 Democratic primary: voter turnout·Above 75k·9%(-44%)VA-10 Republican nominee?·Dave Beckwith·61%(+42%)Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?·Gabriel Attal·8.3%(-37.7%)Who will Obama endorse before the midterms?·Karen Bass·21%(-37%)Texas's 15th District margin of victory·Republicans, 7+ pts·33%(+31.9%)Will Graham Platner drop out?·Before Jul 8, 2026·5%(-30%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/6 - 7/12)·Above 200·18%(-28%)Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (July 2026)·At least 40·99%(+23%)New Jersey Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 19+ pts·64%(+23%)
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Summary

July 10 is favored at 18% as of 8 Jul 2026, 00:33 UTC across 5 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • July 10: 18% (24h change 0%)
  • July 12: 16% (24h change 0%)
  • July 9: 13% (24h change 0%)
  • July 8: 12% (24h change 0%)
  • July 7: 10% (24h change 0%)
international5 marketsLIVE

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic (7/6 - 7/12)

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July 7

10%
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