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Powered by KalshiTrump's approval rating on Aug 24, 2026?·39.4·1%(-98%)When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?·Before Oct 1, 2026·17%(-82%)Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?·Missouri Amendment 3·15%(-81%)Texas State House winner?·Republican party·16%(-72%)Georgia Attorney General winner?·Tanya Miller·44%(-53.3%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 30·90%(+42%)Next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt?·Ulrich Siegmund·86%(+41%)New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory·Democrats, 8+ pts·31%(-39%)Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?·U.S.–Mexico interim agreement·33%(-39%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·88%(+33%)Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/24 - 8/30)·Above 10·48%(-30%)South Carolina Republican Senate runoff: Ralph Norman vote percent·At least 50%·64%(+30%)How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (8/22-8/28)·At least 5·63%(+29%)Israeli legislative election winner?·Yashar·69%(+28%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff: voter turnout·Above 350k·11%(-26%)
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Summary

Republicans, 3+ pts is favored at 76% as of 12 Aug 2026, 15:17 UTC across 9 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Republicans, 3+ pts: 76% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 5+ pts: 68% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 7+ pts: 63% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 9+ pts: 61% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 11+ pts: 53% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 13+ pts: 35% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 17+ pts: 25% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 19+ pts: 16% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 23+ pts: 11% (24h change 0%)
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Mississippi Senate margin of victory

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