Powered by KalshiRNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)·Above 120 million·4%(-85%)How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided?·Special convention·96%(+72%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic (7/6 - 7/12)·July 7·75%(+61%)Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)·Rahm Emanuel·77%(+56%)Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory·Lula da Silva, ≥15%·47%(+44%)Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?·Ronaldo Caiado·6%(-43%)Trump's approval rating on Jul 10, 2026?·40.2 to 40.4·3%(-36%)Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved?·Before Sep 1, 2026·54%(-35%)FL-25 Republican nominee?·George Moraitis·50%(+34%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jho Low·61%(+32%)How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?·Above 58·56%(-31%)Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary?·Before Aug 1, 2026·29%(-28%)Which bills will become law in 2026?·Surface transportation reauthorization·45%(+26%)Will Graham Platner endorse a successor in Jul 2026?·Before Aug 1, 2026·49%(-25%)FL-07 Republican nominee?·Cory Mills·62%(-24%)

Powered by KalshiRNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)·Above 120 million·4%(-85%)How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided?·Special convention·96%(+72%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic (7/6 - 7/12)·July 7·75%(+61%)Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)·Rahm Emanuel·77%(+56%)Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory·Lula da Silva, ≥15%·47%(+44%)Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?·Ronaldo Caiado·6%(-43%)Trump's approval rating on Jul 10, 2026?·40.2 to 40.4·3%(-36%)Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved?·Before Sep 1, 2026·54%(-35%)FL-25 Republican nominee?·George Moraitis·50%(+34%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jho Low·61%(+32%)How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?·Above 58·56%(-31%)Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary?·Before Aug 1, 2026·29%(-28%)Which bills will become law in 2026?·Surface transportation reauthorization·45%(+26%)Will Graham Platner endorse a successor in Jul 2026?·Before Aug 1, 2026·49%(-25%)FL-07 Republican nominee?·Cory Mills·62%(-24%)

Summary

Before Oct 1, 2026 is favored at 36% as of 9 Jul 2026, 13:03 UTC across 2 markets. Kalshi odds.

policy2 marketsLIVE

Will the House vote on a birth tourism crackdown?

Odds history

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Before Oct 1, 2026

36%

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$189

Before Aug 1, 2026

31%

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$106