Election Odds Powered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiWA-10 primary: who will advance?·Marilyn Strickland·2%(-95%)AK-AL primary: Who will advance?·Nicholas Begich·2%(-94%)CA-49 primary: Who will advance?·Mike Levin·1%(-93.5%)Massachusetts's 5th District margin of victory·Democrats, 39+ pts·93%(+93%)NY-14 Democratic nominee?·Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez·95%(+93%)FL-04 Republican nominee?·Aaron Bean·2%(-92%)MI-01 Republican nominee?·Jack Bergman·2%(-92%)VA-05 Republican nominee?·John McGuire·2%(-92%)FL-05 Republican nominee?·John Rutherford·2%(-91%)FL-15 Republican nominee?·Laurel Lee·2%(-91%)FL-27 Republican nominee?·Maria Elvira Salazar·2%(-91%)MI-04 Democratic nominee?·Sean McCann·2%(-91%)MI-08 Republican nominee?·Amir Hassan·2%(-91%)MN-07 Democratic nominee?·Erik Osberg·2%(-91%)Mississippi Governor winner? (2027)·Republican·0.2%(-90.9%)

Arizona election odds — senate, house, and governor race predictions

U.S. Midterms 2026

Senate, House, and governor races by state

8315 races
197Dem
38 tossup
435 districts· 218 to control
Rep200
44
109
44
38
43
93
64

Odds breakdown — scroll for more →

highlighted = projected flip

Safe D (44)
LA-04
1-2
SC-02
3-6
FL-19
1-6
MO-03
0-6
MO-07
2-8
NC-09
3-9
FL-28
1-8
TN-06
0-8
OH-12
0-8
IN-03
0-8
PA-09
0-9
IN-06
0-9
KY-02
0-10
CA-03
90-9
FL-20
91-6
IL-08
92-5
CA-14
92-5
CA-15
90-1
NH-02
90-0
VA-07
90-0
WI-02
92-2
WA-09
92-2
TX-20
91-0
MN-05
91-0
CO-02
91-0
CA-47
94-3
WA-10
92-0
VA-08
92-0
CA-01
92-0
IL-13
93-1
CT-05
93-0
NC-04
93-0
HI-01
93-0
CA-49
93-0
MA-02
94-0
NJ-12
94-0
NY-20
95-0
GA-05
95-0
WI-04
96-1
ME-01
96-0
TX-30
96-0
IL-02
96-0
MA-05
97-0
NY-13
98-0
Likely D (109)
TX-17
15-16
FL-04
9-11
FL-02
7-11
SD-01
7-11
FL-05
6-11
ID-02
7-12
OK-05
5-11
TN-08
5-11
TX-10
5-12
FL-12
4-12
TX-27
2-11
FL-21
3-13
UT-04
1-11
TX-22
1-11
PA-11
1-11
OH-14
1-11
IL-16
1-11
OH-05
0-11
KY-01
0-11
TX-19
0-11
TX-01
0-11
NC-03
3-14
PA-13
0-11
OK-03
0-11
IN-08
0-11
GA-08
0-11
AR-03
0-13
LA-01
0-13
IL-12
0-13
TN-07
1-14
OH-02
2-15
TX-08
0-14
TN-02
0-14
PA-14
0-14
FL-06
2-16
TX-06
1-15
OK-04
0-15
GA-03
0-15
FL-08
2-17
SC-05
1-16
TX-13
0-16
MN-07
0-17
FL-07
0-17
AR-04
0-17
TX-02
1-18
TX-26
0-18
OK-02
0-18
TX-05
0-19
TX-12
1-20
TN-03
0-21
WA-03
76-21
MI-10
76-20
NJ-07
78-21
NE-02
78-20
NV-03
79-18
AZ-06
79-18
CA-21
78-16
NY-19
80-15
FL-23
82-12
MS-02
84-13
MI-07
81-10
CA-48
78-5
IN-01
82-9
NH-01
84-10
MI-03
75-1
UT-01
82-7
CA-33
76-0
NY-14
76-0
PA-02
77-0
OH-13
87-10
VA-02
79-2
CA-45
78-0
MI-08
88-10
LA-02
86-6
IL-10
80-0
CA-17
82-0
MN-02
89-7
AZ-04
85-2
OR-05
84-1
VA-04
84-0
CA-35
84-0
IL-17
89-5
PA-17
85-0
MA-04
85-0
MA-03
85-0
CA-50
85-0
TX-16
85-0
PA-04
85-0
PA-03
85-0
GA-06
85-0
CT-01
85-0
CO-06
85-0
NJ-11
86-0
MN-04
86-0
PA-12
86-0
NV-04
86-0
CA-41
86-0
OH-03
86-0
NY-12
86-0
NY-09
86-0
NC-12
86-0
MA-07
86-0
GA-02
87-1
MD-02
87-0
IL-04
87-0
FL-24
87-0
CA-12
88-0
NJ-03
89-1
KS-03
89-1
Lean D (44)
MN-06
13-36
IA-03
60-35
AZ-09
0-26
TX-25
1-27
NY-17
61-34
WI-03
62-34
NC-06
9-37
WV-01
7-35
MI-02
0-32
FL-01
0-35
AZ-01
66-30
FL-25
69-31
MS-01
0-40
CO-08
68-28
PA-10
68-27
PA-07
70-26
TX-34
69-25
IA-01
63-13
NM-02
74-17
OH-01
61-2
MD-08
61-0
TX-33
61-0
CA-19
61-0
MD-05
61-0
RI-02
61-0
WA-06
61-0
VT-01
61-0
PA-06
61-0
MD-04
61-0
DE-01
61-0
AL-07
70-9
GA-13
62-0
CA-24
64-0
NY-25
65-0
IL-11
65-0
NY-06
67-0
NY-16
69-0
NY-05
69-0
NY-08
71-0
NJ-10
71-0
MD-03
71-0
CA-13
72-0
CA-32
74-0
OR-03
74-0
Tossup (38)
CA-22
26-28
IA-02
47-50
VA-01
49-46
FL-14
47-50
FL-22
52-46
OH-09
45-51
PA-01
44-52
NC-01
53-42
ME-02
43-56
TX-35
41-56
TX-15
41-56
PA-08
55-39
MT-01
39-59
OH-07
39-59
NJ-02
24-58
MI-05
3-42
TX-28
52-12
FL-18
1-43
VA-05
14-58
CA-02
45-0
FL-10
46-0
CO-03
0-48
AL-03
0-48
MO-08
1-49
NY-15
49-1
CA-28
51-1
TX-04
2-52
NC-05
0-51
TX-18
52-0
WA-01
52-0
MD-06
53-1
PA-16
2-55
CA-46
54-0
AL-05
0-54
FL-11
2-56
MD-01
1-56
NM-01
56-0
AL-04
0-57
Lean R (43)
MI-04
36-60
FL-09
37-61
CA-10
26-0
OR-06
29-0
NJ-08
31-1
MI-13
32-0
CO-05
32-66
SC-06
32-67
MN-01
32-67
NV-01
39-1
NY-01
30-68
AL-02
29-67
CA-16
39-0
FL-27
30-69
CO-04
23-65
MN-08
27-70
MI-01
27-71
MO-05
26-71
NV-02
15-60
AZ-02
15-62
FL-13
24-72
CA-40
24-72
SC-01
24-73
NY-21
24-73
TX-24
23-74
WA-05
22-74
CA-05
7-60
TX-31
6-62
IN-05
8-64
AZ-05
17-74
MS-04
0-60
LA-03
0-61
SC-03
0-61
LA-06
5-66
AZ-08
8-70
NC-07
3-69
KY-06
3-69
IL-15
0-67
OH-06
4-71
TX-36
2-69
GA-14
0-68
TX-38
1-70
WI-07
2-72
Likely R (93)
WI-01
24-24
FL-15
21-11
VA-11
11-0
CA-34
11-0
VA-03
11-0
MA-09
11-0
MA-01
11-0
MA-08
11-0
TX-29
11-0
RI-01
11-0
MI-06
11-0
IL-14
11-0
IL-07
11-0
IL-06
11-0
IL-05
11-0
CO-07
11-0
CA-44
11-0
FL-26
16-5
WA-02
12-0
OR-01
12-0
MD-07
12-0
GA-04
12-0
CA-07
13-0
CA-37
13-0
CA-06
13-0
NC-11
22-9
OR-04
13-0
CA-25
15-1
NY-26
15-0
IL-03
15-0
PA-05
16-0
NJ-06
18-0
NY-07
18-0
KY-03
18-0
CA-39
18-0
CA-38
19-0
NJ-09
20-1
MO-01
20-0
CA-43
21-0
NY-10
21-0
AZ-07
21-0
MI-11
24-3
CO-01
22-0
NY-03
23-1
OH-15
23-76
FL-16
21-76
TX-23
21-77
MO-02
19-78
OH-10
20-79
TX-09
20-80
NY-02
18-78
TX-32
18-79
TN-05
19-80
GA-12
17-80
NC-14
17-80
VA-06
15-79
AK-01
14-80
AR-02
16-83
TX-21
15-82
WI-05
14-83
GA-01
14-83
NE-01
10-79
KY-04
14-84
NY-24
14-85
FL-17
13-84
WI-08
7-78
GA-07
3-75
WA-04
12-85
NY-23
11-85
TX-14
2-76
OH-08
11-86
GA-11
11-86
TX-03
1-76
NY-11
10-86
NC-08
1-77
AL-06
0-77
WI-06
5-82
FL-03
1-78
UT-03
10-87
IN-02
10-89
UT-02
7-86
MO-06
0-80
ND-01
7-89
OH-04
0-82
TN-09
1-83
TX-11
0-83
KS-04
3-86
OK-01
2-85
NC-13
2-85
IA-04
0-85
MT-02
0-85
KS-02
2-87
MO-04
0-86
Safe R (64)
NY-04
1-1
NY-22
0-0
NC-10
1-0
NY-18
2-1
CA-27
2-0
IN-04
9-6
NM-03
5-1
NC-02
7-2
NJ-05
6-1
CA-30
6-0
CA-51
6-0
MN-03
6-0
IL-01
6-0
AZ-03
6-0
WA-08
6-0
HI-02
7-0
CA-52
7-0
CA-42
7-0
CA-31
7-0
TX-07
8-0
VA-10
8-0
CA-11
8-0
CA-26
8-0
CA-04
8-0
MI-12
8-0
MA-06
8-0
WA-07
8-0
IL-09
8-0
IN-07
9-1
NJ-01
9-0
CA-09
10-0
CT-03
10-0
CT-02
10-0
CA-29
10-0
CA-08
10-0
CT-04
10-0
CA-18
10-0
TX-37
10-0
OH-11
10-0
CA-36
10-0
CA-23
10-90
LA-05
6-92
VA-09
2-90
SC-07
1-90
GA-10
1-91
IN-09
0-90
NJ-04
0-90
GA-09
0-90
SC-04
1-91
NE-03
3-94
KS-01
0-91
WV-02
1-92
TN-04
3-94
MI-09
0-92
CA-20
0-92
AL-01
0-92
PA-15
0-93
OR-02
0-93
TN-01
0-94
MS-03
0-94
WY-01
1-96
AR-01
3-97
KY-05
0-95
ID-01
0-95