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California election odds — House and governor race predictions

U.S. Midterms 2026

Senate, House, and governor races

426 races
223Dem
9 tossup
435 districts· 218 to control
Rep203
175
37
11
9
16
81
106

Odds breakdown — scroll for more →

highlighted = projected flip

Safe D (167)
IL-11
7
CA-26
5
TX-20
4
NM-02
90-17
CA-13
92-14
NJ-09
91-12
NJ-03
92-11
AL-07
91-9
MD-06
92-10
MS-02
92-10
NH-02
91-8
NV-04
93-10
NJ-05
90-7
PA-17
92-8
MN-05
92-8
CA-39
92-8
WA-09
94-9
MD-02
92-8
MN-02
92-7
CA-08
91-6
CA-35
97-12
UT-01
93-7
TX-07
93-7
CA-27
94-7
NY-18
94-8
KS-03
94-7
CA-28
90-4
LA-02
92-5
WA-08
94-7
PA-06
91-4
MD-05
92-5
NY-08
91-4
MA-04
92-4
MN-04
92-5
CA-36
93-5
MA-06
94-6
MI-06
92-4
DE-01
91-3
PA-04
94-6
SC-06
92-4
NY-16
91-3
IL-14
94-6
NY-09
92-4
GA-06
92-4
OH-11
95-6
KY-03
94-6
MD-04
92-3
CO-01
94-6
NY-05
93-4
PA-12
95-6
CA-38
94-5
IL-06
93-4
IL-13
96-7
NJ-12
96-7
NY-20
95-6
PA-05
96-7
CO-02
93-4
GA-02
95-5
IN-07
94-4
HI-02
97-8
MN-03
91-1
NJ-06
93-4
CA-03
95-5
CA-15
95-5
CA-30
95-5
IL-09
95-5
MO-01
94-4
NM-01
95-5
CA-33
94-3
VA-10
95-5
CA-16
94-4
CA-41
94-3
AZ-07
95-5
NC-02
97-6
CT-01
94-4
MA-03
93-2
CO-07
97-6
IL-04
95-4
OR-04
97-6
VA-07
96-5
CT-02
96-5
FL-10
94-3
CA-09
95-3
CA-50
95-4
IL-08
96-4
TX-29
96-4
CA-47
94-3
CO-06
96-5
GA-13
96-4
CA-06
93-1
AZ-03
93-1
CA-10
96-4
FL-20
96-4
MA-09
96-4
NY-25
96-4
WI-02
95-3
CT-03
96-4
MD-07
96-4
CA-18
96-4
NJ-01
95-2
CA-49
94-1
CT-04
98-5
OR-06
97-4
MI-12
98-5
CA-32
96-3
VA-03
95-2
WA-06
97-4
MD-03
98-5
NY-26
98-5
RI-01
97-4
CA-31
96-3
MA-08
97-4
CA-24
97-3
NJ-11
97-4
MA-05
97-3
TX-16
98-4
CA-42
97-4
CA-01
97-3
MD-08
97-3
NY-15
97-3
FL-24
98-4
GA-04
98-5
CA-43
97-3
HI-01
97-3
IL-03
97-3
IL-05
97-3
NJ-10
98-4
VA-08
98-4
WA-07
98-4
MI-13
98-4
TX-37
97-3
CA-51
97-3
IL-10
97-3
NY-06
98-4
OR-01
98-4
CA-02
96-1
CA-17
99-4
ME-01
98-3
NC-12
97-3
OH-03
99-4
IL-02
99-4
NY-13
98-3
NC-04
99-4
NY-10
99-4
WA-02
99-4
CA-19
99-3
TX-30
97-2
WA-10
98-2
NY-12
99-4
VT-01
99-3
NJ-08
98-2
OR-03
99-3
PA-02
99-3
PA-03
99-3
TX-33
99-3
VA-11
99-2
WI-04
98-2
CA-44
97-1
IL-07
97-0
VA-04
97-1
GA-05
99-2
MA-02
97-0
TX-18
99-2
NY-07
98-1
MA-01
99-2
NY-14
99-1
MA-07
99-0
Likely D (37)
NY-17
75-29
AZ-01
75-25
NE-02
77-21
CA-22
78-21
NJ-07
80-23
MI-07
80-20
VA-02
83-23
WA-03
80-20
AZ-06
80-18
NY-03
82-20
TX-28
83-21
CO-08
82-19
CA-48
81-15
NY-04
80-14
NY-19
81-15
CA-25
79-12
NH-01
88-16
RI-02
76-4
CA-21
88-15
MI-11
78-5
NV-03
87-14
CA-52
79-5
IN-01
86-11
AZ-04
88-12
FL-23
88-12
CA-45
89-12
OH-01
88-11
OH-13
87-10
CA-46
87-9
NV-01
89-11
NY-22
89-11
OR-05
89-11
MI-08
88-10
MI-03
89-10
IL-17
89-7
WA-01
86-3
IL-01
89-6
Lean D (11)
PA-08
64-43
FL-25
63-39
MI-10
65-41
OH-09
66-41
IA-03
70-30
WI-03
72-30
PA-07
70-26
PA-10
73-28
IA-01
71-25
TX-34
70-22
NM-03
74-13
Tossup (9)
NC-01
50-51
CT-05
3-4
TX-15
54-52
VA-01
49-47
NC-11
53-49
FL-14
48-53
FL-22
47-52
IA-02
45-55
TX-35
44-57
Lean R (16)
PA-01
42-63
WI-01
39-61
MT-01
39-64
AZ-02
38-65
MI-04
36-63
NY-01
34-63
ME-02
34-67
OH-07
35-68
FL-09
34-68
CO-03
33-68
KY-06
32-68
AL-02
32-71
MN-01
28-68
FL-07
28-72
FL-27
27-74
CO-04
2-63
Likely R (81)
CO-05
26-77
MN-08
24-76
OH-15
25-77
TX-23
23-75
SC-01
25-78
FL-13
23-77
WA-05
23-78
FL-15
27-83
VA-05
23-79
MO-05
21-78
FL-16
21-79
OH-10
20-78
TX-24
23-81
TN-05
21-80
TX-32
22-81
NV-02
20-80
NY-21
20-80
TX-09
20-80
WI-08
19-80
NC-09
18-80
FL-12
18-81
MN-06
20-83
NJ-02
17-80
NY-02
18-81
FL-04
18-82
GA-07
18-82
IN-05
18-82
NC-07
17-81
MD-01
18-83
TX-17
16-81
GA-12
17-83
MI-01
17-83
NC-06
19-85
MO-02
18-85
TN-09
17-84
FL-26
17-85
NC-14
16-84
TX-31
16-84
AR-02
19-88
GA-11
15-85
AZ-08
16-87
NY-24
16-87
NE-01
9-81
AZ-05
14-86
GA-01
14-86
TX-10
14-86
TX-12
14-86
TX-21
14-86
AK-01
11-84
FL-03
13-86
FL-21
12-85
CA-05
13-87
FL-17
13-87
OH-14
13-87
PA-16
13-87
SC-02
13-87
WI-07
13-87
TX-38
13-88
WA-04
11-86
FL-28
12-88
KS-02
10-86
NY-23
12-88
OH-05
11-87
OK-05
13-89
AL-05
10-86
KS-04
12-89
OK-01
11-88
TX-14
10-87
TX-36
12-89
WI-05
12-89
WI-06
11-88
FL-05
11-89
FL-08
11-89
NC-08
11-89
NC-13
11-89
OH-08
11-89
TX-27
10-88
MI-09
7-85
TX-05
9-88
TX-25
10-89
MO-04
10-89
Safe R (105)
AR-03
20-96
NY-11
13-90
LA-06
13-90
OH-12
12-91
CA-23
12-91
FL-18
11-90
FL-11
14-94
FL-19
10-90
VA-06
10-90
TX-22
10-91
TN-08
11-92
UT-02
9-91
IN-02
9-91
FL-02
9-91
IN-04
11-93
NC-03
9-91
TX-04
11-93
FL-01
8-91
SC-04
8-91
IL-16
8-91
KY-04
10-93
TX-02
8-92
LA-05
10-93
LA-04
10-93
PA-11
8-92
TX-26
8-92
IN-09
7-91
IA-04
12-96
NC-10
8-92
OH-06
7-90
GA-08
8-92
ID-02
10-94
IL-12
7-92
PA-09
10-94
LA-01
10-95
SD-01
7-92
TX-06
6-91
TX-11
9-94
NC-05
7-93
OH-04
11-97
TX-03
7-93
SC-07
7-93
TN-07
7-93
AZ-09
9-95
SC-05
7-93
MN-07
8-95
WV-01
7-93
GA-10
7-93
MI-05
7-94
TN-04
7-94
CA-20
5-92
PA-15
7-94
GA-03
6-93
GA-14
8-95
KS-01
6-94
TN-03
6-94
TN-02
5-93
TX-13
5-93
KY-01
6-94
UT-04
7-96
MT-02
6-94
OK-04
4-93
ND-01
7-96
FL-06
6-95
KY-02
6-95
OH-02
3-92
AR-04
7-96
IN-08
5-94
AL-01
3-93
MS-03
6-96
IL-15
5-95
IN-03
4-94
VA-09
7-97
MS-01
4-94
AL-06
5-96
IN-06
5-96
PA-13
5-96
TX-08
5-95
UT-03
5-95
MO-06
8-98
AL-04
6-97
NJ-04
5-95
TX-01
4-95
AL-03
4-96
GA-09
4-96
WV-02
5-96
MO-03
6-98
LA-03
7-99
NE-03
7-99
ID-01
4-97
MI-02
3-95
PA-14
5-98
OR-02
4-97
OK-03
5-98
TN-06
5-98
TX-19
2-95
MS-04
3-96
SC-03
5-98
MO-07
5-98
KY-05
4-98
AR-01
4-97
OK-02
4-98
WY-01
2-96
MO-08
3-98
TN-01
3-99