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Powered by KalshiNatalie Harp White House departure announced?·Before Nov 1, 2026·91%(+78%)Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army?·Before Jan 1, 2027·27%(-70%)When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?·Before Dec 1, 2026·88%(+66%)Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·83%(+63%)Louisiana's 2nd District margin of victory·Democrats, 50+ pts·15%(-45%)New York's 17th District margin of victory·Republicans, 3+ pts·15%(-45%)How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/16-8/22)·At least 3·1%(-44%)Arkansas's 4th District margin of victory·Republicans, 36+ pts·59%(-37.8%)Idaho Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 19+ pts·58%(-36%)Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?·Rebeca Grynspan·7%(-36%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 35·40%(+34%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·55%(-34%)Iowa Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 2+ pts·20%(-34%)New Jersey Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 17+ pts·65%(-34%)Who will be the next White House Director of Legislative Affairs?·No new Director of Legislative Affairs·47%(+32%)

New Mexico election odds — Senate, House, and governor race predictions

U.S. Midterms 2026

Senate, House, and governor races

426 races
229Dem
5 tossup
435 districts· 218 to control
Rep201
194
23
12
5
14
38
149

Odds breakdown — scroll for more →

highlighted = projected flip

Safe D (186)
CA-26
5
NJ-03
96-36
NY-22
94-29
CA-45
95-21
NV-03
90-16
NY-19
90-14
WA-03
90-12
NV-04
90-11
CA-48
91-10
NM-02
94-13
FL-23
90-9
IN-01
91-9
NV-01
91-9
MI-03
91-9
MN-02
95-13
CA-25
91-9
MD-06
93-10
NM-03
93-10
CA-21
92-8
MI-08
94-10
CA-08
91-6
MN-04
90-6
KS-03
93-7
PA-06
91-6
CA-13
90-4
IL-11
93-7
PA-17
92-6
CA-27
94-7
AZ-04
95-9
OR-01
91-4
NY-05
92-6
OH-13
95-8
MD-05
92-5
MD-02
95-8
TX-07
95-7
CA-39
92-5
CA-36
93-5
MA-06
94-6
MI-06
92-4
NY-16
91-3
IL-01
95-7
PA-04
94-6
IL-14
94-6
IL-08
94-5
OH-11
95-6
AZ-07
95-7
KY-03
94-6
MD-04
92-3
CA-38
94-5
NJ-12
96-7
NY-20
95-6
NY-09
92-3
CA-09
93-3
FL-20
96-7
IL-13
97-7
CA-15
95-5
CA-30
95-5
CA-33
94-4
IL-09
95-5
NH-02
96-5
NM-01
95-5
CA-01
97-7
MI-11
94-3
NC-12
95-5
CA-03
94-4
UT-01
97-6
WA-08
94-4
NY-08
95-4
SC-06
97-6
CO-07
97-6
MN-05
99-8
CO-02
99-8
CT-02
96-5
MA-08
95-4
CT-01
94-3
VA-07
96-5
WI-02
95-4
VA-03
95-4
CA-47
94-3
CA-50
95-3
RI-02
96-4
TX-29
96-4
GA-02
96-4
CO-06
96-5
AZ-03
93-1
TX-20
96-4
PA-12
96-4
NY-15
97-5
GA-13
96-4
MD-07
96-4
MS-02
96-4
CA-41
94-1
IL-17
96-3
CA-16
94-2
FL-10
95-3
GA-06
97-5
MI-12
98-5
WA-01
96-3
VA-10
97-4
WA-09
95-2
GA-04
98-5
IL-04
97-4
NJ-11
97-4
AL-07
96-3
MD-03
98-5
PA-05
97-3
NY-26
98-5
CA-31
96-3
CO-01
98-5
IL-02
97-4
MI-13
99-6
MA-04
98-4
NY-25
96-3
WA-07
98-4
IN-07
98-4
TX-16
98-4
CA-10
96-2
MD-08
97-3
OR-04
97-3
VT-01
97-3
WA-06
97-4
MA-09
98-4
NY-06
98-5
DE-01
97-3
NC-02
97-3
CA-18
98-4
FL-24
97-3
HI-01
97-3
IL-05
97-3
NJ-08
96-2
NJ-10
98-4
NY-13
98-4
TX-37
97-3
CA-35
98-3
CA-43
97-3
IL-10
97-3
CA-24
98-3
ME-01
98-3
CA-42
98-4
NJ-06
97-2
OR-03
97-3
CA-51
98-3
IL-03
98-3
NY-12
99-4
CA-32
97-3
CA-02
97-3
CA-17
99-4
CT-03
96-2
VA-04
98-3
OH-03
99-4
NC-04
99-4
NY-10
99-4
WA-02
99-4
OR-06
97-2
TX-30
97-2
CA-28
97-1
MO-01
99-4
HI-02
97-2
MA-01
98-2
NJ-01
98-2
CA-49
97-1
CT-04
99-4
CA-19
97-1
PA-02
99-3
TX-33
99-3
VA-11
99-2
WI-04
98-2
RI-01
99-3
CA-44
97-1
MA-03
98-1
MA-05
97-0
WA-10
98-1
CA-06
98-1
LA-02
99-2
VA-08
99-2
TX-18
99-2
IL-07
98-0
MA-02
98-0
NY-07
98-1
GA-05
99-1
NJ-05
100-2
NY-14
99-1
MN-03
99-1
IL-06
99-1
MA-07
99-0
PA-03
99-0
Likely D (23)
FL-13
78-77
CO-08
81-36
PA-07
79-32
AZ-01
79-29
IA-03
76-24
PA-10
82-28
AZ-06
85-26
VA-02
82-23
NJ-07
80-20
NE-02
89-27
NY-03
86-24
NJ-09
89-26
OH-07
81-17
TX-28
85-21
CA-22
83-15
NH-01
89-16
CA-52
79-5
NY-04
89-15
NY-18
83-8
OH-01
89-14
CT-05
78-3
CA-46
87-9
OR-05
89-9
Lean D (12)
FL-14
62-44
NC-01
61-41
NC-11
62-38
MI-07
63-38
PA-01
67-37
NY-17
71-38
FL-25
66-32
PA-08
69-35
WI-03
71-32
IA-01
74-27
TX-34
74-27
OH-09
74-26
Tossup (5)
TX-15
54-46
TX-35
56-48
VA-01
46-54
IA-02
45-59
MI-04
59-44
Lean R (14)
MI-10
61-65
MT-01
43-60
CO-03
45-63
FL-22
42-62
ME-02
38-62
FL-07
34-67
CO-04
34-68
FL-09
37-72
WI-01
32-68
TX-23
31-71
AZ-02
28-69
MN-01
28-70
AL-02
29-74
NY-21
25-74
Likely R (38)
SC-01
27-76
CO-05
26-76
KY-06
28-78
NY-01
26-77
NV-02
23-76
NC-09
25-79
MO-02
21-79
TX-32
24-83
WA-05
20-80
FL-27
18-82
MO-05
21-85
OH-15
17-83
FL-16
18-85
TX-09
16-83
NE-01
15-84
VA-05
14-83
FL-15
15-85
OH-10
16-86
AR-02
17-88
MN-08
16-87
FL-11
12-84
IN-05
14-86
NC-07
14-86
NC-14
13-85
FL-04
16-89
GA-12
13-86
TN-09
15-89
NC-13
11-86
FL-02
12-88
TN-05
12-88
SC-07
12-89
NJ-02
11-89
NY-02
11-89
OH-08
11-89
MS-01
6-84
NC-03
9-88
AK-01
5-84
SC-02
6-89
Safe R (148)
FL-12
17-90
AR-03
20-96
PA-16
13-91
WI-08
12-90
AZ-05
14-92
AZ-08
12-90
TX-10
12-90
FL-05
11-90
FL-26
11-90
TX-22
12-91
TX-24
11-90
MO-06
13-92
PA-11
12-92
NC-06
11-91
TX-02
11-91
TX-27
12-92
FL-28
11-91
TX-21
10-90
TN-08
10-90
MD-01
9-91
NY-23
9-91
FL-19
9-91
KS-04
11-93
OK-01
9-91
KS-02
9-91
WI-05
10-92
CA-23
10-92
TX-25
10-92
IL-16
9-92
OH-12
9-92
MN-06
8-91
TX-12
9-92
WI-06
9-92
IA-04
10-93
TX-31
12-95
KY-04
10-93
TX-17
9-92
NC-10
8-91
OH-05
9-93
WI-07
7-90
OK-05
13-97
MI-01
7-91
CA-05
9-93
FL-08
10-94
GA-01
9-93
GA-08
9-93
LA-06
8-92
GA-07
8-92
NY-24
6-91
PA-09
10-94
FL-21
10-94
TX-36
8-93
TX-06
10-95
TX-03
9-94
UT-02
8-93
WA-04
7-93
PA-14
10-95
OH-14
8-94
GA-11
8-94
PA-15
8-94
TN-06
10-96
SC-05
7-93
FL-18
4-90
MO-03
8-94
OH-06
6-93
IL-12
9-95
TX-11
8-95
NC-08
4-91
TX-05
9-96
TX-38
9-96
UT-03
8-95
MO-04
5-93
FL-01
5-92
TN-07
5-93
TX-04
6-94
NY-11
6-94
AZ-09
3-91
UT-04
7-96
WV-01
6-95
MT-02
6-95
MI-05
4-93
IN-03
8-97
TX-14
5-94
OH-02
2-92
VA-06
7-97
IN-06
8-98
GA-10
7-97
IN-09
3-93
AR-04
4-94
MI-02
5-95
KS-01
3-94
AL-04
6-97
ID-02
3-94
FL-03
7-98
IN-02
5-96
IN-04
5-96
VA-09
6-97
MI-09
7-98
IL-15
3-94
TX-08
4-95
CA-20
5-96
IN-08
5-96
LA-01
5-96
AL-05
4-96
OH-04
3-95
TX-26
0-92
NE-03
7-99
GA-03
2-94
LA-03
5-97
MN-07
4-96
TN-04
3-95
SD-01
5-97
FL-17
5-97
LA-04
2-95
ID-01
4-96
KY-02
2-95
LA-05
2-95
WV-02
3-96
TN-03
4-97
FL-06
4-97
OK-03
5-98
PA-13
2-96
AL-03
3-97
AL-01
3-96
SC-03
5-98
TN-01
3-97
MO-07
5-98
KY-05
4-98
SC-04
4-97
GA-14
2-96
NC-05
1-95
MS-03
2-96
WY-01
2-96
MS-04
3-97
TX-19
1-95
NJ-04
1-95
TX-01
3-98
ND-01
1-96
OK-04
2-96
TN-02
2-97
GA-09
1-96
MO-08
3-98
AL-06
3-98
OK-02
1-96
AR-01
3-97
OR-02
4-99
TX-13
2-97
KY-01
1-98