Election Odds Powered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiWA-10 primary: who will advance?·Marilyn Strickland·2%(-95%)Virginia Democratic Senate nominee?·Mark Warner·2%(-94.9%)AK-AL primary: Who will advance?·Nicholas Begich·2%(-94%)NY-14 Democratic nominee?·Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez·95%(+94%)CA-49 primary: Who will advance?·Mike Levin·1%(-93.5%)Massachusetts's 5th District margin of victory·Democrats, 39+ pts·93%(+93%)FL-04 Republican nominee?·Aaron Bean·2%(-92%)MI-01 Republican nominee?·Jack Bergman·2%(-92%)VA-05 Republican nominee?·John McGuire·2%(-92%)CA-06 primary: Who will advance?·Kevin Kiley·1%(-91%)FL-05 Republican nominee?·John Rutherford·2%(-91%)FL-15 Republican nominee?·Laurel Lee·2%(-91%)FL-27 Republican nominee?·Maria Elvira Salazar·2%(-91%)MI-04 Democratic nominee?·Sean McCann·2%(-91%)MI-08 Republican nominee?·Amir Hassan·2%(-91%)

New York election odds — senate, house, and governor race predictions

U.S. Midterms 2026

Senate, House, and governor races by state

8315 races
177Dem
32 tossup
435 districts· 218 to control
Rep226
94
50
33
32
34
70
122

Odds breakdown — scroll for more →

highlighted = projected flip

Safe D (94)
NY-04
0-1
FL-04
9-10
FL-05
6-7
NC-09
2-3
LA-04
1-2
FL-28
1-2
ID-02
7-8
FL-19
1-2
IL-15
0-2
MO-03
0-2
TN-06
0-2
TN-03
0-2
TN-02
0-2
OH-12
0-2
IN-03
0-2
TN-08
5-7
TN-07
1-3
CA-05
8-10
PA-11
1-3
KY-02
0-3
IN-06
0-3
FL-02
7-10
TX-31
7-10
MI-05
3-6
FL-08
2-6
TX-10
6-10
FL-12
3-7
PA-14
0-5
SC-05
1-6
OK-05
5-10
TX-02
1-6
TX-01
0-6
PA-09
0-6
OK-02
0-6
GA-08
0-6
FL-18
1-7
FL-21
2-8
UT-04
1-7
TX-25
1-7
TX-19
0-7
TX-26
0-7
TX-13
0-7
AR-03
0-7
TX-08
0-7
PA-13
0-7
OK-04
0-7
OK-03
0-7
IN-08
0-7
OH-14
2-9
MN-07
0-8
TX-05
0-8
OH-05
0-8
KY-01
0-8
GA-14
0-8
GA-03
0-8
FL-06
2-10
OH-02
2-10
TX-12
1-9
AZ-09
0-9
AR-04
0-9
TX-22
1-10
TX-06
1-10
IL-12
0-10
CA-03
90-9
FL-20
91-6
IL-08
92-5
CA-14
92-5
CA-15
90-1
NH-02
90-0
VA-07
90-0
WI-02
92-2
WA-09
92-2
TX-20
91-0
MN-05
91-0
CO-02
91-0
CA-47
94-3
WA-10
92-0
VA-08
92-0
CA-01
92-0
IL-13
93-1
CT-05
93-0
NC-04
93-0
HI-01
93-0
CA-49
93-0
MA-02
94-0
NJ-12
94-0
NY-20
95-0
GA-05
95-0
WI-04
96-1
ME-01
96-0
TX-30
96-0
IL-02
96-0
MA-05
97-0
NY-13
98-0
Likely D (50)
IL-16
1-11
LA-01
0-11
NC-03
3-14
WV-01
7-23
FL-07
0-17
MI-02
0-18
AL-06
0-20
OH-06
4-24
FL-01
0-25
MS-01
0-25
WA-03
76-21
MI-10
76-20
NJ-07
78-21
NE-02
78-20
NV-03
79-18
AZ-06
79-17
CA-21
78-16
NY-19
80-15
FL-23
82-12
MS-02
84-13
MI-07
81-10
IN-01
82-9
NH-01
84-10
UT-01
82-7
OH-13
87-10
VA-02
79-2
MI-08
88-10
CA-45
80-0
LA-02
86-6
MN-02
89-7
CA-19
83-0
AZ-04
85-2
IL-17
89-6
OR-05
84-1
PA-17
85-0
TX-16
85-0
PA-03
85-0
GA-06
85-0
CT-01
85-0
NJ-11
86-0
MN-04
86-0
NV-04
86-0
CA-41
86-0
GA-02
87-1
MD-02
87-0
IL-04
87-0
FL-24
87-0
CA-12
88-0
NJ-03
89-1
KS-03
89-1
Lean D (33)
NC-06
8-26
IA-03
60-35
NY-17
61-34
AL-05
0-28
WI-03
62-34
AL-03
0-31
AL-04
0-34
AZ-01
66-30
FL-25
69-31
CO-08
68-28
PA-10
68-27
PA-07
70-26
TX-34
69-25
IA-01
63-13
NM-02
74-17
AL-07
70-11
OH-01
61-1
MD-08
61-0
TX-33
61-0
NY-08
61-0
NJ-10
61-0
MD-05
61-0
RI-02
61-0
WA-06
61-0
PA-06
61-0
PA-02
61-0
OR-03
61-0
MD-04
61-0
DE-01
61-0
VT-01
65-0
NY-12
65-0
MA-07
65-0
CA-13
70-0
Tossup (32)
CA-22
26-28
IA-02
47-50
VA-01
49-46
FL-14
47-50
FL-22
52-46
OH-09
45-51
PA-01
44-52
NC-01
52-42
ME-02
43-56
TX-15
41-54
TX-35
41-56
PA-08
55-39
MT-01
39-59
OH-07
39-59
MN-06
13-37
TX-28
52-25
NJ-02
24-58
PA-16
1-41
NY-14
42-0
FL-11
2-44
NY-25
44-0
VA-05
14-58
FL-10
46-0
CO-03
0-48
MO-08
1-49
NY-15
49-1
CA-35
49-0
NC-05
1-51
TX-18
51-0
TX-11
0-51
WA-01
52-0
MD-01
2-56
Lean R (34)
MI-04
36-60
FL-09
37-61
CA-46
26-0
GA-13
28-0
CA-02
30-0
NY-16
32-0
CO-05
31-65
MN-01
32-67
NY-01
30-68
SC-06
29-67
AL-02
29-67
FL-27
30-69
CO-04
23-65
MN-08
27-70
MI-01
27-70
MO-05
25-71
AZ-02
15-62
FL-13
24-72
CA-40
24-72
SC-01
24-73
NY-21
24-73
NV-02
11-61
TX-24
23-74
WA-05
22-74
AZ-05
17-74
LA-06
6-66
LA-03
0-61
SC-03
0-61
AZ-08
8-70
MS-04
0-62
WI-07
6-72
NC-07
2-68
KY-06
2-70
TX-38
1-71
Likely R (70)
WI-01
24-24
TX-17
15-10
CA-25
11-1
KY-03
11-0
NY-22
12-0
CA-16
12-0
MD-07
12-0
NC-11
22-10
CA-52
13-0
FL-15
21-7
FL-26
16-2
CA-28
17-1
NY-18
17-1
NJ-08
17-1
NJ-09
18-1
IL-10
19-0
VA-10
20-0
NV-01
21-1
AZ-07
21-0
NY-09
22-0
MD-06
25-1
OH-15
23-76
FL-16
21-76
TX-23
21-77
MO-02
19-78
OH-10
20-79
TX-09
20-80
NY-02
18-78
TX-32
18-79
TN-05
19-80
VA-06
17-79
GA-12
17-80
NC-14
17-80
AK-01
14-80
TX-21
15-82
AR-02
15-83
WI-05
14-83
GA-01
14-83
NE-01
10-79
NY-24
14-85
FL-17
13-84
TX-14
2-75
KY-04
14-87
WA-04
12-85
NY-23
11-85
WI-08
4-78
OH-08
11-86
GA-11
11-86
TX-03
1-76
NC-08
1-76
WI-06
5-81
NY-11
10-86
TX-36
1-77
GA-07
1-77
TX-04
1-78
FL-03
1-78
UT-03
10-87
IN-02
10-89
UT-02
7-86
MO-06
0-80
ND-01
7-89
OH-04
0-82
TN-09
1-83
OK-01
2-85
IA-04
0-84
KS-04
2-86
NC-13
1-85
MT-02
0-85
KS-02
2-87
MO-04
0-86
Safe R (122)
MO-07
2-2
SC-02
2-2
SD-01
7-7
TX-27
6-6
NC-02
2-2
MI-03
1-1
NC-10
1-0
CA-27
1-0
NY-03
2-1
NJ-05
2-1
TX-07
2-0
HI-02
2-0
CA-30
2-0
CA-26
2-0
CA-04
2-0
CA-43
2-0
MA-03
2-0
MI-12
2-0
MA-06
2-0
MA-08
2-0
CA-42
2-0
WA-02
2-0
VA-04
2-0
MN-03
2-0
IL-09
2-0
IL-01
2-0
CA-31
2-0
AZ-03
2-0
CT-03
3-0
CT-02
3-0
CA-11
3-0
MA-09
3-0
MA-01
3-0
CT-04
3-0
TX-37
3-0
IL-05
3-0
MI-11
6-3
WA-08
3-0
CA-24
4-0
NY-26
4-0
IN-05
10-6
IN-07
5-1
CA-48
10-5
IL-06
5-0
MO-01
6-0
NJ-06
6-0
CA-34
6-0
NY-06
6-0
NY-07
6-0
CA-06
6-0
RI-01
6-0
PA-05
6-0
OR-01
6-0
OH-03
6-0
IL-11
6-0
CO-01
7-0
VA-11
7-0
CA-17
7-0
CA-07
7-0
MA-04
7-0
CA-10
7-0
CA-38
7-0
CA-37
7-0
CA-29
7-0
CA-08
7-0
MI-13
7-0
WA-07
7-0
TX-29
7-0
OR-06
7-0
OR-04
7-0
OH-11
7-0
NY-05
7-0
MI-06
7-0
MD-03
7-0
IL-14
7-0
IL-03
7-0
GA-04
7-0
CO-07
7-0
CA-39
7-0
CA-36
7-0
NM-03
8-1
IN-04
9-2
CA-09
8-0
NM-01
8-0
CA-33
8-0
CA-51
8-0
CA-50
8-0
CA-18
8-0
PA-04
8-0
NJ-01
8-0
IL-07
8-0
CO-06
8-0
CA-44
8-0
VA-03
9-0
NY-10
9-0
NC-12
9-0
PA-12
10-0
CA-32
10-0
CA-23
10-90
LA-05
6-92
SC-07
1-90
GA-10
1-91
VA-09
0-90
IN-09
0-90
NJ-04
0-90
GA-09
0-90
SC-04
1-91
NE-03
3-94
KS-01
0-91
WV-02
1-92
TN-04
3-94
MI-09
0-92
CA-20
0-92
AL-01
0-92
PA-15
0-93
OR-02
0-93
TN-01
0-94
MS-03
0-94
AR-01
3-97
WY-01
1-96
KY-05
0-95
ID-01
0-95